OUR Vladimir Putin is a “radically rational” leader who is betting that Western countries will get tired of supporting Ukraine and agree to a negotiated settlement of the conflict that will be beneficial to Russia; he told Politico former President of France Francois Hollande.

Hollande, who served as president from 2012 to 2017, has extensive personal experience with Putin. He negotiated with the Russian leader alongside former German chancellor Angela Merkel under the so-called Normandy scheme in 2014 after Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass.

However, these dialogue efforts have proved fruitless, exposing Putin as a leader who understands only the concept of power and defies all attempts at negotiation, including the controversial efforts of current French President Emmanuel Macron, Hollande said.

“Putin is a radically rational person or a rationally radical person, whatever you want,” Hollande said when asked if Putin could try to expand the conflict beyond Ukraine. “He has his own reasoning, and within this framework he is ready to use violence. He can only understand the power we can bring against him.”

Ahead of the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Hollande added that Putin would seek to “consolidate his gains to stabilize the conflict, hoping that public opinion will tire and Europeans will fear escalation.” negotiation”.

However, unlike during his presidency, when Paris and Berlin negotiated with Putin, this time the role of mediation likely to be taken over by Turkey or China – “which is not encouraging”Hollande said.

Macron, who served as economy minister under Hollande before leaving his government to become president in 2017, has tried his hand at diplomacy with Russia, holding several one-on-one talks with Putin both before and after his invasion of Ukraine.

However, this approach has not produced clear results, drawing criticism from Ukraine and Eastern Europeans, who also opposed Macron, saying that Russia would demand “security guarantees” after the end of the war.

Hollande did not criticize his successor for Putin’s approach. It made sense, he said, to talk to Putin before the invasion in order to “deprive him of any arguments or pretexts.” But after a “short period of uncertainty” following the invasion, “the question (of the benefits of dialogue) has unfortunately been shelved.”

Disillusionment with, or lack of, French and German leadership during the war in Ukraine has fueled arguments that power in Europe is shifting eastward, with countries like Poland backing Ukraine with any clarity.

However, Hollande was not convinced by this, arguing that the northern and eastern countries are betting on the United States. “These countries, mostly the Baltics and the Nordic countries, are mostly connected to the United States. They see the American defense as a shield.”

“To this day,” he continued, “U.S. President Joe Biden has shown “exemplary solidarity and responsiveness to his role in the transatlantic alliance.” But tomorrow, with a different American president and a more closed Congress, or at least less willingness to spend, will the United States behave the same way?

“We must convince our partners that the European Union is based on principles and political values. We should not deviate from them, but at the same time, the partnership can offer valuable and stable security guarantees,” Hollande added.

Source: Politico