FROM Europe face war within its borders within a year, the race to his succession Jens Stoltenberg as its general secretary NATO already started.

Stoltenberg was a stabilizing factor as Western capitals rushed to support Ukraine in an attempt to resist the Russian invasion. But his term expires in September, and as a result, discussions escalate over who could replace him.

Maybe it’s a woman or someone from Eastern Europe?

Scenarios and “fresh air”

The war in Moscow greatly complicates the decision, which will have to be agreed upon by all 30 leaders of the Alliance member states.

The next Secretary General will have to take on the difficult role of urging NATO capitals to continue supplying arms to Ukraine and helping the country bolster its defenses while avoiding the Alliance’s direct involvement in the hostilities. Few could effectively cope with this task.

“The general feeling is that it’s time for a breath of fresh air,” said a senior NATO diplomat.

But it is possible that the Allies will choose the safe path and prefer Stoltenberg.

A senior European diplomat summarized rumors about a successor to the current secretary general at three levels, depending on how actively each possibility is discussed.

The most likely scenario is an extension of Stoltenberg’s term.

At the second level, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kalas and British Defense Minister Ben Wallace are considered as possible successors.

According to the same diplomat, a third group of names that are less talked about include Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrid Simonyte, Slovak President Zuzana Kaputova and Commission Chair Ursula von der Leyen.

Pressure on the female general secretary

Since all NATO Secretaries General have been men so far, there is pressure within the Alliance for a woman to take on this role.

“Time for a female secretary general,” said a senior Alliance diplomat. “If men try to maintain their positions, there will be no opportunity for women to be fairly represented.”

In addition, some allies are also calling for better representation by geographic region. Stoltenberg, who has been general secretary since 2014, is a former prime minister of Norway and his most recent predecessors were from Denmark, the Netherlands and the UK.

It is noted that Stoltenberg’s term was extended in March last year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with many officials believe that it is very likely that it will be extended again.

Stoltenberg inspires confidence. Despite the fact that some countries would rather see a new face as soon as possible, the Norwegian is still considered one of the few officials who can keep his cool even in the face of the most serious crises.

“Stoltenberg wants to stay,” the diplomat said.

However, in the event that his term is extended for a short time, the race for his successor could coincide with changes in the EU’s top offices. in 2024, and with the US presidential election, which some allies would rather avoid.

An Alliance spokesman declined to provide further details about Stoltenberg’s plans for the future. Asked by the BBC in December about the succession issue, Stoltenberg said: “At the moment I am focused on my duties”, adding: “I am not reflecting on what will happen after my term ends.”

Eastern front and … the reluctance of the West

At the same time, some see candidates from Eastern Europe as a particularly good choice for the role of general secretary.

Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there were voices within the Alliance calling for the selection of a general secretary from the eastern front. Some officials in the region even argue that the war has further fueled calls for a successor to Stoltenberg from countries such as Estonia or Lithuania.

“Countries in the region have been leaders in spending on military reinforcements and have also pushed the Alliance to improve their defenses,” said a spokesman for the Baltic nation.

At the same time, Kaputova from Slovakia also seems to fit the requirements for the post of general secretary, although her name is less heard in NATO circles.

Another candidate is Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. But he may face obstacles from neighboring Hungary, as well as opposition from those who would prefer a woman for the position.

Some Western capitals, however, currently seem unwilling to support candidates from the Alliance’s eastern front – and especially from the Baltic states – as they are more inclined towards a more belligerent approach given the fighting is taking place so close to the border. their.

… western front

Western NATO countries are for some Allies a reliable choice for the leadership of the Alliance.

UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is highly respected and has previously said he considers the Secretary General’s role “a good job”. However, many European capitals, and Paris in particular, are expected to oppose the London candidate and push for the EU’s candidacy.

Another possibility being discussed in Brussels is the selection of another general secretary from the Netherlands. The country’s politicians have always been popular for this role, which they have held in the past for three terms spanning 21 years.

The Dutch are said to take defense matters seriously, but are not prone to escalation like Baltic officials. The names of possible candidates from the Netherlands are Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Sigrid Kaag and Defense Minister Kaisha Holngren.

When asked about the speculation, Rutte said he wants to leave politics altogether and do something completely different. In addition, two Dutch ministers showed no interest in the role of the general secretary.

Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, formerly Germany’s defense minister, could get the backing of Western capitals who would not want the role to be taken over by someone from NATO’s eastern wing, but it remains unclear whether she is interested in this position. .

However, some within the Alliance dismiss talk of a possible successor to Stoltenberg.

“It’s more of a series of names that are on everyone’s mind,” said another senior European diplomat. “I guess what Stoltenberg will be like.”

^{Source: Politico}