German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made it clear in August in Prague: “Europe’s center of gravity is shifting to the east.” OUR Russian invasion of Ukraine was a shock that fundamentally shook the conventions on the European continent, in the EU. and in NATO. In fact, it emphasized—and strengthened—the influence of the states of Central and Eastern Europe.

Poland and the Baltic states were the first to make a moral case for supporting Ukraine, immediately filling the void left by the paralysis of French and German leaders in the first weeks of the war. The war also highlighted the need for further enlargement of the EU. to the western Balkans and beyond, paving the way for accession to Ukraine and Moldova.

Pressure from his fortunes Eastern and Central Europe this week she was decisive, convincing Germany and the US to provide tanks to Ukraine. The war hastened what Soltz hinted at: the influence of the Old Continent, which wanted good relations with Moscow, was waning in favor of the new EU members. in the north and east, with still fresh memories of the Soviet occupation and a suspicious attitude towards the orders of Brussels.

Poland is ready

Poland is feverishly building up its defenses, with the government announcing a doubling of troops and ordering state-of-the-art weapons systems. Warsaw took on the role of a persistent lobbyist, putting pressure on Berlin to agree to the export of Leopard 2 tanks.

France and Germany are now called to account for the failure of their traditional European security policy based on cooperation with Russia. President Macron, for his part, continues to hope that France will participate in any future peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, going so far as to provide Russia with security guarantees that will anger many of his European partners.

The war has done irreparable damage to Macron’s ambitions to create an autonomous European defense entity, as NATO and the US increased their influence on the European continent last year. The upcoming expansion of the alliance with Sweden and Finland also affects Macron’s plans to defend the euro.

The new German government, led by Olaf Scholz, was not ready for war and the sudden cessation of Russian gas supplies. However, Germany’s growing dependence on Chinese industry threatens the geopolitical model promoted by Berlin. The prospect of Europe’s eastward expansion sounds attractive, especially at a time when the influence of the traditional European giants, Germany and France, is waning.

push right

Historian Luc van Midlor notes that after the outbreak of the war, Brussels was more lenient towards Poland and Hungary in their dispute over the rule of law. “Politically and morally, Poland escaped any punishment as a front-line country supplying Ukraine with weapons and accepting refugees,” says Van Midlor. There is no doubt that the countries of Eastern and Central Europe have pushed the EU. to the right, with a surge of neo-conservatism about Ukraine, experts say. The political vacuum left by European leaders capable of cooperating with their historical enemies such as Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl is now being aggressively filled by the states of Eastern and Central Europe.