Per Ukrainethe battle for the tanks of the West, which he succeeded after yesterday’s statements from Berlin and Washington, was only the beginning, Politico highlights in an extensive articleunderlining now that Kyiv is turning its attention to the next step: sending Western Allied fighters.

In fact, as he mentions, behind-the-scenes discussions in this direction have already begun, with Ukraine also supported by some of the Baltic countries.

“The next, normal stage is the militants,” says a diplomat from one of the northern European countries. However, according to Politico, the aircraft debate is likely to be an even more complex issue than the battle tank debate. In Europe, several officials and diplomats report that their governments, although they do not rule out such discussion in advance, they always consider that the risk of escalation remains high.

As emphasized in the article, The United States told Kyiv that talk of sending fighter jets was “not discussed” at this stage.according to the same diplomat, who, however, it also leaves an open “window”: “There’s a red line. But also last summer the line was installed on HIMARS and moved. The same thing happened with the tanks.”

In the same vein, another European diplomat emphasizes the speed with which the West’s arms race is gaining momentum. “Talks about fighter jets are not on the agenda right now … But they can even start in two or three weeks.”

Next month, defense ministers from countries backing Ukraine are due to hold another meeting at the American military base at Ramstein in southwestern Germany, where aviation and air support are expected to dominate.

Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra told the Dutch parliament last week that the country’s cabinet would discuss providing F-16 aircraft if requested from Kyiv. “We are open, we have no taboos,” he said.

Last month, his Slovak counterpart Rastislav Kucher told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency that Bratislava was “ready” to hand over Soviet MiG-29 fighter jets to Kyiv and that he was in talks with its NATO allies and the Ukrainian president. Volodymyr Zelensky on how this will be done.

Other leading politicians are less optimistic. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Wednesday ruled out the delivery of combat aircraft, citing the need to prevent further military escalation. “There will be no deliveries of combat aircraft to Ukraine,” he said. “It was made clear from the very beginning and by the President of the United States,” he added.

Therefore, some officials believe that the Ramstein talks in February will focus more on developing a secondary strategy in case combat aircraft are needed urgently at some point in the future, rather than working out a short-term supply agreement.

Ukraine’s European allies expect the conflict to last three to five years or even longer, and there are fears that the West is close to the limit of what can be provided to Kyiv without prompting a strong reaction from Moscow.

“Permanent Zoom”

According to a third diplomat from another European government, there was an “unwritten policy” among Western allies in early 2022 not to supply Ukraine with a comprehensive arms package for fear of a similar response from Russia.

The point was that the West should gradually lend support to Ukraine, closely watching Russia’s reaction at every turn. “Many countries in the West believe that if we gave Ukraine all the weapons that it asked for in the first stage of the war, then there would be a harsh reaction from Russia, possibly with the use of nuclear weapons. This process can be said to be [ο Πούτιν] he gradually got used to it,” the diplomat said.

Indeed, Western support has been slow but steadily improving, from anti-tank Javelins and man-portable air defense systems such as Stingers, to HIMARS and Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, tanks and armored vehicles. So the delivery of aircraft is only a matter of time, the same diplomat predicts.

Last week, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverley met with senior US officials in Washington to discuss further military support for Ukraine beyond tanks.

In later statements, Cleverly declined to say whether the provision of fighter jets, cluster bombs, or long-range missiles was also discussed. “I will not make predictions about the nature of future military support. Our support has evolved as the war has evolved and the needs of Ukrainians have evolved,” he said.

As an island nation, Britain is more hesitant to send planes to Ukraine than tanks and ground military equipment, according to a British official. There are also fears that public support for such measures will wane if there is a further escalation. European diplomats agree that the West will first want to exhaust all other air support options, such as drones and possibly long-range missiles.

Washington also recently approved the delivery of unguided Cold War-era Zuni rockets that the Ukrainian military could launch from its Soviet MiGs. However, the same diplomats also referred to recent US decisions to support the fact that Washington is preparing to open a discussion on the aircraft.

In July, the US House of Representatives approved $100 million to train Ukrainian pilots to fly American fighter jets. In October, Ukraine announced that dozens of its pilots had been trained on Western fighter jets. In August, the Deputy Minister of Defense said that “it is possible that in the future Western aircraft may become part of the complex” of weapons supplied to Ukraine.

Yuriy Shak, adviser to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, noted that Kyiv’s priority after tanks was to ensure aircraft safety and that Allied “excuses” could be overcome. He said he was confident that the West was now convinced of the need to carefully but consistently increase its military contribution. He added that the Ukrainian Air Force wants to have American F-16 and F-15 aircraft, but is open to other proposals.

Most US-owned F-15s and F-16s are deployed to other regions, including the Indo-Pacific. “Right now, almost 50 countries use the F-15,” Shaq said. “I don’t believe for a second that Ukraine doesn’t deserve fighter jets.

“Nightmare” logistics

However, sending the aircraft will be a major logistical challenge for Ukraine’s allies.

F-15 and F-16 require long and high-quality runways, which are not available in Ukraine. Experts say it would be easy for Russia to spot any attempt to build operational bases and strike at them.

According to Justin Bronk, senior aerodynamics researcher at British think tank RUSI, American F-18 fighters or the Swedish-made Gripen would be more suitable, as they can take off from shorter runways and require less maintenance. But both are in relative short supply.

Swedish Defense Minister Paul Jonsson told Politico on Wednesday that Sweden “has no plans to send Gripen to Ukraine anytime soon.”

Other fighter jets, such as the French-made Rafale, may require a significant number of Westerners in Ukraine to repair the planes and get them ready for flight. These people will automatically become targets for Russian attacks.

But when asked if the plane donation would represent an escalation, a French government spokesman pointed out that Ukraine had already received “heavy duty” weapons from the West, such as Ceasar howitzers.

“We say that everything we send should be for defense purposes, but once the equipment is delivered, it ends up in the hands of the Ukrainians,” the official said. “The argument that NATO officers would be needed in Ukraine was the same for the Patriots. But we will send them anyway.

Source: Politico