It was the end of January 2020, exactly three years ago, when United Kingdom officially left European Unionclosing the cycle at age 47 (1ⁱⁿ January 1973 – 31ⁱⁿ January 2020) and discovering new ones… in an uncharted landscape of bitterness and uncertainty.

“On January 31, 2020 at midnight (CET), when the Withdrawal Agreement entered into force, the United Kingdom left the European Union and received the status of a third country,” reads the official website of the European Union in the heading “Brexit: EU-UK relations”.

Three years later, the UK has already been through too much, with Brexit nevertheless, he continues to cast his shadow over the country not only as a wound (it remains to be seen if and when it will heal), but also as a lag.

From a purely political/partisan point of view, the UK exit from EU this proved to be absolutely “fatal” for the leadership of the ruling Tory conservative faction. Those who in recent years have been called upon to manage Brexit’s hot potato as prime minister have eventually been forced to resign: David Cameron in 2016 – immediately after the referendum Theresa May in 2019 Boris Johnson in 2022 and Liz Truss a few weeks after Johnson, and she in 2022.

For Cameron and May, the reason for resigning was Brexit itself. For Johnson and Truss, Brexit formed, combined with other factors (pandemic, war in Ukraine, etc.), a framework of challenges within which they would have to navigate, a framework of largely ambivalent issues that continues to haunt it today. political life – as it turns out in practice, is extremely prone to 180-degree turns – Rishi Sunak.

Now they’re rethinking it

According to public opinion polls, Brexit is now viewed by most Britons as a “mistake” that ended up worsening the situation in the country without giving the “respite” that many of its supporters had hoped for on the British economic front. but neither on the immigration front, which after so many years is not only problematic, but exacerbated by the fact that the flows are even increasing, and the British are negotiating with the French side for new agreements to increase control in the English Channel.

According to a recent (November 2022) YouGov poll for the (politically “conservative”, owned by Rupert Murdoch) Times of London, only 32% of Britons currently rate the UK’s exit from the EU as “correct”. But even of those who voted to leave in the 2016 referendum, 20% now believe they made the “wrong decision,” according to the same poll.

Even before the start of the war in Ukraine, back in late 2021, Britain is being reminded that it is facing shortages (of food, fuel, etc.), inflated energy bills and hundreds of meters of queues at gas stations. Succumbing to the pressure of market factors, the British government actually then, in the fall of 2021, together with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, gave the green light to thousands of truck drivers and workers from abroad to urgently enter the country as temporary workers. .

Now, with the war in Ukraine and a new prime minister, Rishi Sunak, at the helm, the British government is called upon to address the following issues: inflation, which should start to decline after a record 2022, strikes that number over British borders and a number of security problems, among others. .

Britain’s next national election is expected unexpectedly in 2024. If opinion polls are to be believed, Keir Starmer’s current opposition Laborists are heading for a decisive victory, while the ruling Tories are heading for a big – perhaps humiliating – defeat.

As for Brexit, it is… delayed and alarming.

First of all, the protocol for Ireland and Northern Ireland is still under negotiation between London and Brussels, but it is part of the withdrawal agreement and is aimed at avoiding the creation of a hard border on the island of Ireland due to the specific conditions prevailing there. (Ireland belongs to the EU… and Northern Ireland belongs to the UK, which has left the EU).

Just last summer (June 2022), “the European Commission opened an infringement case against the United Kingdom for failing to comply with important parts of the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol,” we read on the Commission’s website.

Ireland is waiting

EU and UK officials (Maros Szefkovic, James Cleverly) held a videoconference ten days ago, during which, as noted in their official joint statement, “both sides discussed the range of existing challenges and the need for a solution to jointly find solutions … They agreed, that this work to find possible solutions should continue in a spirit of constructive cooperation and taking into account the legitimate interests of the parties involved.”

In other words, negotiations are ongoing… but Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar is not optimistic that we will have a new deal anytime soon. “We haven’t reached that yet,” he said a few days ago, speaking to US television channel CNBC against the backdrop of the Davos World Economic Forum.

Labor plans to change course

However, Brexit is not a “ready deal” even for Starmer-opposing British Labor, who are preparing, when they come to power, to promote new changes in trade relations with the EU, changes that will make these relations “conflict-free”) and Brexit … softer.

Sources familiar with the behind-the-scenes tell the New Statesman that “the Labor government may seek sectoral trade deals with the EU based on dynamic alignment with European Union rules.”

No, the UK is not going to return to the single market and customs union. The Labor Party, however, if it becomes government, “may adopt a dynamic alignment approach with European norms in its quest to stimulate British economic growth”…