The die was cast with Erdogan give an official slogan in elections May 14thus confirming previous oral leaks Bahceli (By the way, this is not the first time that a partner of the Nationalist government has revealed what will follow…).

Thus, Turkish voters will be called to the polls on May 14, about a month ahead of schedule, to elect parliamentarians and a president, while 68-year-old (69-year-old in a few weeks) Erdogan will seek re-election. for the presidency and the united opposition”sixexpected to announce her presidential candidate, most likely in the coming days.

It is worth noting that for the first time in Turkish chronicles six opposition parties (People’s Republican – CHP, Dobro – İYİ, Democracy and Progress – DEVA, Future – Gelechek, Evdemonia – Saadet, Democratic – DP) united their forces in a united front against Erdogan.

It is also worth noting that for the first time, factions led by former top ministers of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) have entered the number of opposition forces opposing Erdogan: Ali Babajan with DEVA and about Ahmet Davutoglu from Gelechek.

Who will be the anti-Erdogan opposition?

Speaking to Habertürk, the 66-year-old leader of the opposition Good Party (İYİ) Meral Axener highlighted two dates: January 26so that the “six” leaders of the opposition should have the next meeting, and January 30so the opposition “six” is going to present their government program.

Now that the date of the election is known, the Turkish opposition is counting down the clock and it must announce its common presidential candidate as soon as possible. Who will he be in the end?

Judging by the public positions of the direct participants, the 74-year-old leader of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) Kemal Kilicdaroglu collects the most chances to receive the anointing. Although more popular with the general public, its mayors are also from CHP Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, And her Ankara, Mansour Javasthey seem to be moving aside, giving way to Kylychdaroglu, and also – from the nationalist MHP – Meral Axener whose political star has shone promisingly in Turkey in recent years.

Kilicdaroglu – Imamoglu – Javas

Both Imamoglu, 52, and Javas, 67, have hinted that they will support Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy for the presidency. Both Imamoglu and the Javanese who came to the CHP from the nationalist MHP owe much of their political rise to Kilicdaroglu himself, who supported them, as Michael Daventry notes in James in Turkey.

And if Kılıçdaroğlu, for his part, is considered a colorless, odorless and too bland leader for a country like Turkey, then other potential CHP candidates also have weaknesses:

Imamoglu has been criticized for being politically inexperienced and dangerously impulsive, and his relentless legal escapades are seen as a burden that could put practical obstacles in his way.

Yavas, on the other hand, has been criticized for being… aloof, as he avoids interviews and rarely takes a public stand on matters of national interest.

As for the 66-year-old Aksener, she had already stated for a long time, back in 2021, that she was not interested in the presidency, but in the prime minister, who, however, was abolished in Turkey and should be restored. through the new version of the Constitution …

At 13, he was in the leadership of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdarolgu he has not managed to win a single victory over Erdogan, as his critics stubbornly remind him. On the other hand, however, his “friends” argue that without him, the decisive victories of Mr. and Mrs. Imamoglu and Yavas in Istanbul and Ankara, respectively, in the 2019 municipal elections.

Now, as we come to the final stage of voting, the question is, can Kilicdaroglu (or Imamoglu, or Yavas) have any hope of defeating Erdogan?

Toughest election for Erdogan

The upcoming elections will be the most difficult for Erdogan in the last 20 years. Everyone agrees with this, even those who believe that Erdogan will emerge victorious again.

large losses who faced the Islamic conservative AKP and Erdogan himself (as party leader) in the 2019 municipal elections (when he lost to Ankara Mansour Yavas and Istanbul to Ekrem Imamoglu), wear after two decades in office (2003–2023) interest nationalist MHP, which are in decline (which also negatively affects the percentage of the ruling Islamic nationalist Alliance of Peoples – Cumhur Ittifaki Erdogan – Bahceli), the situation economy. which negatively affects the daily lives of voters (inflation high, etc.) refugee which backfired, causing a strong reaction in the popular sections of urban centers, a super-presidential system of government that presents gaps and arrhythmias, strengthening Islamism which alienates both secular and reinforcing authoritarianism which targets as potential enemies of the regime anyone who is not with Erdogan… they have already formed a – largely unexplored – electoral landscape that does not lend itself to pre-election walks. Against…

Second round

As for the electoral process, in order to be elected president in the first round on May 14, it was necessary to gain 50% plus one vote, which, according to public opinion polls, is practically difficult. If this does not happen, Turkish voters will return to the polls on May 28 for the second round of presidential elections.

Past experience has shown that Erdogan’s AKP can indeed be defeated in elections. In 2019, she lost the mayors of Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, etc., and in June 2015, as they recall, she lost (temporarily) an absolute majority in the national assembly. Given the above, there are basically two questions: Will Erdogan lose? And if he loses, what will he do next?

And if he loses…

On the previous occasions when he lost, Erdogan tried to annul the election results either by re-election (in Istanbul in 2019, citing irregularities in the counting of votes by the Supreme Electoral Council – YSK) or by returning the country to early national elections after a certain period. the imposed failure to form a government; and the alleged (some say provocative) escalation of tensions as a result of domestic attacks and terrorist attacks (in 2015).

How likely is a Turkish Capitol?

In his attempt to predict what might happen in Turkey after May 14, economist Timothy Ash, who has studied Turkish events for many years, does not exclude the possibility of seeing scenes of the Capitol there. The stakes are, after all, very high, not only for Erdogan’s entourage, which, if he is out of power, will lose their immunity and may be subject to prosecution, but also for the opposition, which, if defeated, will lose perhaps one of their last chances to stop Turkey’s move toward authoritarianism and, to recall the recent front page of the Economist, toward “dictatorship.”

If the prosecution of Imamoglu and Kaftancioglu, the imprisonment of Demirtas and Yuksendag, the threats to ban the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) and cut off its state funding despite being the third largest party in Turkey, are any indications… these are the extent to which Erdogan is willing to “play dirty”, as his critics accuse him.

Polls

However, public opinion polls favor the opposition. According to the polls, Erdogan will lose to Kılıçdaroğlu, Imamoğlu, Yavas and Aksener in the second round of the presidential elections. However, many analysts still see it as more likely that Erdogan will eventually win. It is noted that the pro-Kurdish HDP has said it will support its own presidential candidate, and not the common candidate of the other six opposition factions (although it remains to be seen which line HDP voters will take in the second round of elections). presidential elections), and Erdogan’s ongoing feud with Sweden (on the background NATO and the “collateral loss” of the Quran) likely favors the AKP’s pre-election leader, allowing him to rally voters on the basis of anti-Westernism and the defense of Islam.

Youth voting

The unshakable factor in all this, de facto to a certain extent unexplored, pre-election landscape is the voting of the youth. Of Turkey’s roughly 64 million registered voters, 13 million are under the age of 24, and of those, nearly 7 million are voting for the first time this year, knowing only one true leader in their lives, Erdogan.

President – National Assembly

In the midst of all this, however, there is another possibility: the possibility that Erdogan will retain the presidency but lose his majority in the national assembly… which is indeed a possibility, judging by the polls, according to which the Islamist-nationalist AKP-MHP duo of his People’s Party Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) is now gaining fewer seats than the opposition forces of the National Alliance (Millet İttifakı).

According to Timothy Ash, in this case, we could see impressive reversals after the election. Whoever gets the presidency, according to this analysis, will have the initiative of the movements, and in such a context, it is possible that many things will change: Erdogan could, for example, try to win Aksener to his side and İYİ, while on the other hand, The CHP may try to recruit the Nationalist Action Party (NAP) of 75-year-old Devlet Bahceli…