“Neither friend nor foe”: A few years ago, in November 2018, Stephen A. Cook tried to substitute “future US-Turkish relations“. decision on one Turkey what will not be for United States of America “neither friend nor foewas the title of a multi-page analysis that Cook published on his website at the time. Council on Foreign Relations.

To justify his assessment of this, Cook cited a number of elements: her intent Turkey buy air defense systems from RussiaTurkish attacks on -supported by US forces – Kurds her Syriaincreasingly authoritarian leadership tendencies Erdogan within the Turkish border, Turkish facilities (see Hulkbank) Iran’s plans to circumvent US sanctions against Tehran etc.

7 Thorns in US-Turkish Relations

All these American-Turkish spikes not only remained, but also sharpened.

1. Turkey’s intention to acquire the Russians S-400 measures were taken, leading to the subsequent exclusion of the Turks from the F-35 co-production program.

2. Internal persecution of Erdoğan’s political opponents continued, and it was directed not only against the Kurds or the pro-Kurdish HDP, but even against prominent politicians of the Turkish mainstream opposition (see below). Imamoglu, Kaftancioglu).

3. A new, third in a row, major Turkish military operation against the Syrian Kurds took place in 2019 (Operation “Source of Peace”) and, if confirmed, what he said a few days ago in Al-Monitor warlord ChurGSyria, Mazlum Abdi Kobanithen the next, fourth, Turkish operation inside Syria may take place in February.

4. Trial of the case Hulkbank continues in the US: the Turkish side “lost” in 2021 the appeal it filed against the original verdict in 2019, and now the case has reached the Supreme Court, which, however, is called to decide whether the state-owned Turkish bank contributed. to Iran’s circumvention of US sanctions, but whether US courts under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act have jurisdiction to bring Turkish government weapons to court.

5. However, besides Hulkbank, two other cases of Turks prosecuted in the US have recently been added: Sezhgin Baran Korkmaz (extradited last year from Austria to the US, where he is on trial for money laundering, fraud) and Sitki Ayan (who was sanctioned for allegedly helping Iran’s Quds Force raise hundreds of millions of dollars in oil sales in circumvention of US sanctions).

6. The Turkish side insists on unilaterally undermining stability in the wider Mediterranean region in a revisionist way by investing in Turkish-Libyan memorandums 2019 and 2022, trying to meet new challenges in Cyprus, in violation of UN Security Council resolutions (two-state rhetoric, unilateral opening of Varosia), instrumentalization of migration, vertical raising of NATO challenges to Greece in Aegean Seatransforming it St.a Sofia in the mosque, etc.

7. But also at the level NATOon the background war in UkraineErdogan’s side – which did not impose sanctions on Russia like the NATO West – chooses alone, together with Hungary, to block its accession Sweden And her Finland in Alliance…

The many thorns left on the US-Turkish axis will be very difficult to disappear in Turkey’s upcoming pre-election period.

Visit January 18

Visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Mevlut Cavusoglu January 18 in Washington did not go as the Turkish side would like. After meeting with the US Foreign Secretary ANDDonnie BlinkenCavusoglu did not hide his discomfort on a number of issues: the attitude of many members of the American Congress (primarily the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Robert Menendez) who dare not succumb to Turkish blackmail, the position of the Biden administration itself, which is not “strong enough” on the issue F-16 what the Turkish side wants to buy from the United States, the deployment of American forces in Syria, which is not consistent with Turkish plans in the region, the attitude of the United States “in favor” of Greece, the final ratification of the integration of Sweden and Finland into NATO, which, according to Mevlut Cavusoglu, should not be a prerequisite the F-16 agreement being promoted, etc.

The US is not yet ready to lose Turkey. Ankara, while highly problematic, remains “a close ally and partner,” as Anthony Blinken said ahead of his meeting with Mevlut Cavusoglu in Washington. Thus, Washington and Ankara will continue to resolve their differences within the framework of the US-Turkey Strategic Mechanism, under which they also issued a corresponding joint statement on January 18. It is noted that before the meeting between Blinken and Cavusoglu within the Victoria Nuland and Sendat Onal.

After the election…

As for open issues (Turkey’s purchase of new F-16s and modernization of existing ones, Turkey’s ratification of Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO, the future of the S-400s already transferred to Turkey), they will apparently remain open in the coming months, and any next major events are likely to be delayed until the next Turkish elections in May or June, according to estimates Namik Tan, former Turkish ambassador to the US and Israel, with an article on Murat Getkin’s website. Tang believes that suspicion between the two sides has reached its peak, making it even more difficult to resolve issues he describes as “extremely difficult” (“derece çetrefil issues”)…