Her leadership China It has long been known that the country is approaching a demographic “crossroads” and must prepare for a slow decline in the population, a decrease in the number of workers and an increase in the number of pensioners. State media is urging young couples to have two or three children to keep Beijing from falling into an economic stalemate.

The official confirmation that last year the country’s population declined for the first time in sixty years caused panic because it happened earlier and more than predicted.

In the eyes of experts, as well as public opinion, the country is not ready to cope with the needs of an aging population, and this despite previous warnings.

Just as the country’s sudden 180-degree reversal from “zero tolerance for Covid” has already exposed the weaknesses of a government that has proven itself unprepared for the outbreak, demographics expose its weaknesses in making tough decisions. The dilemmas of supporting the young or the elderly and funding either the welfare state or technology and the military are now becoming pressing.

To cope with the economic and social problems of an aging society, the country’s leader Xi Jinping has taken steps to create a welfare state and announced a new stage of development that will rely less on cheap labor.

Some say bolder policies are needed, with measures such as introducing maternity benefits, increasing parental leave and protecting women’s rights in the workplace.

After the new statistics were released, many accused the government of being late and not doing enough in interviews and on social media. “I want to have a baby, but the demands of life are beyond me,” said the 34-year-old shop owner in Beijing, adding that she thinks one child is enough.

Last year, the country’s population fell by 850,000, with deaths exceeding births, something not seen since the Great Plague of the 1960s. A fact that naturally increases anxiety and tension.

Despite the abandonment in 2016 of the one-child policy, which has been in place for more than three decades, and a further relaxation in 2021, when three children were allowed, most couples have only one child, especially in cities. Many young people, especially women, doubt their ability to be both parents and employees, despite government claims to support families.

There are couples considering immigrating to countries with a more efficient welfare state, concerned about the economic future of an aging society.

Despite government promises of women’s rights, many employers only hire men to avoid maternity leave. Public policy ignores the pressure placed on women to choose between motherhood and work in a society that simultaneously makes them responsible for caring for their parents and relatives.

Population aging is not exclusively a Chinese phenomenon, but due to years of political restrictions on family size, the problem is much more acute than in countries such as Japan or South Korea.

The resulting economic and demographic pressures will weaken the power of the Asian giant and could lead to its leaders becoming more aggressive, as Tufts University professor Michael Beckley writes in his book. China is expected to lose between 5 million and 10 million workers each year who will now be elderly, which the same scholar believes cannot be addressed by raising the retirement age.

Many disagree with this prediction, which can be countered by better training that will increase productivity and increase innovation and industrial automation. However, this will require an increase in government spending, which will reduce investment in areas such as military modernization, technology, and homeland security.

The article was published in The New York Times.