The Threat Assessment Summary Report released today by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) assesses the overall level of risk to the EU/EEA associated with the spread of the sub-option Omicron ХВВ.1.5 (kraken) as low for the general population.

Moderate to high risk for vulnerable people, such as the elderly and unvaccinated immunocompromised people, depending on their immunity to SARS-CoV-2. There are quite a few gaps in knowledge about XBB.1.5 and this estimate may change in the coming weeks as more data becomes available.

Mathematical modeling by ECDC indicates that XBB1.5 could become dominant in the EU/EEA in one to two months, given the low performance reported in the EU/EEA and the expected growth rate. There is currently no evidence that the severity of XBB.1.5 infection differs from that of circulating Omicron subtypes.

“The XBB1.5 subtype is currently only present at very low levels in the EU/EEA, but may become predominant in the EU/EEA in the coming months,” said ECDC Director Andrea Ammon, noting that “in light of this, ECDC recommends that appropriate testing and sequencing, increase the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, and strengthen infection prevention and control measures.”

“Non-pharmaceutical measures should also be considered, such as staying home when sick, teleworking, good room ventilation, and proper use of face masks,” Ms Ammon added.

XBB.1.5 is a subclass of XBB that evolved from the two previous Omicron classes with an additional change in pins. It was first detected in the US in October 2022 and since then has been proportionally increasing in the US and many countries around the world, including several EU/EEA countries, ECDC reports.

As of January 12, 2023, the ECDC has identified this subtype as a variant of interest.

ECDC proposals

ECDC offers the following response options to public health authorities in the EU/EEA:

– Maintain or improve appropriate levels of testing and sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in line with goals and based on ECDC/WHO recommendations and timely data sharing.

– Appropriate communication of risks to healthcare workers and the public, including information on treatment options.

– Improve timely delivery of COVID-19 vaccines, including primary doses and booster doses, in accordance with national guidelines.

– Evaluation of time-limited and non-drug interventions such as staying home when sick, teleworking, proper use of face masks, and good room ventilation.

^{Source: APE-MEB}