Next year, Russia will enter a deep political crisis, which may exacerbate separatist tendencies in some of its regions, which will eventually lead to the collapse of Vladimir Putin’s “empire”, according to researcher Kamil Galeyev.

Galeyev, who was born in Russia but emigrated to the United States, where he now works at the Wilson Center, one of the most famous American think tanks, presents his Twitter a possible model for the collapse of a country he describes as “the last European colonial empire left largely intact.”

He recalls that Russia was a relatively minor political entity until it began its vast territorial expansion into Siberia in the 16th century, a time period that largely coincided with the establishment of the first overseas empires of Western European colonial powers.

“Those who doubt the colonial nature of Russia point out how different it was from what is now considered the epitome of colonialism – the British Empire. Indeed, Russian colonialism was very different from English colonialism, but often strikingly similar to Ibero-American colonialism,” states Galeev.

The researcher notes that the colonial nature of Russia is easier to understand if you consider it as an empire like those created by Spain and Portugal, but which has not disintegrated even today.

“The Russian Federation holding Siberia is no different from Spain holding Mexico or Portugal holding Brazil. The parallels with Spain and Portugal can be useful in modeling the eventual collapse of Russia. Since the internal structures of these empires are not different, the mechanism of their disintegration could be similar [și în cazul Rusiei]starting with the trigger itself (the military defeat of another country),” says Galeev.

Russia and myths about Vladimir Putin’s empire

Galeyev argues that a Moscow defeat by Kyiv would have a far greater impact on Russia than any defeat by Spain or Portugal against France during their colonial rivalry, since the Russians never saw Ukraine as an independent state, only as a self-province. populated by lower cousins.

Galeyev also claims that the Russian Empire is held not only by force, but also by myth:

1. Russia is a superior military power, so it cannot be defeated anyway.

2. There is no salvation for the province except within Russia, without Russia you will return to the stone age, figuratively speaking.

“From the Russian point of view, Ukraine is a rebellious province. Therefore, the war against Ukraine is a test of the imperial myth that the rebellion will lead to a return to the Stone Age. If this does not happen, then we will have to throw you into the stone age to support this myth,” says Galeyev.

According to him, the Russian imperial myth is based on two other fundamental assumptions: that the dissident provinces cannot survive without Russia, and that Moscow can destroy them at any moment.

“Both are being tested in Ukraine,” the researcher notes, adding that this is also the reason why Moscow’s armed forces are trying to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

“At the moment, the second thesis is very weakened. Ukraine has not only held out (something few thought possible in February), but is now waging war on the Russians, striking [bazelor de] strategic bombers are very far from the border,” he recalls.

What will happen if Russia loses the war in Ukraine

Galeyev also notes that any potential ceasefire would create a bifurcation point with two scenarios:

1. Russia regroups, replenishes supplies, attacks and wins, which confirms the imperial myths of the Russians.

2. Russia does not do this, which will disprove them.

“The fate of the empire now depends on whether it can destroy the rebel province,” Kamil Galeev emphasizes.

Regarding the scenario in which Moscow will not succeed in destroying Ukraine or at least convince its population that it will succeed in doing so in the future, the researcher states that such a development would be enough to shake confidence in both Russian imperial myths and start the process of the country’s disintegration .

Galeyev says that such a scenario, which he calls a “national divorce,” is likely to be triggered not by Putin’s dissidents, as most people expect, but by regional interest groups that already exist and whose goals can vary radically from region to region. .

“National divorce, most likely, will not start in ethnic republics. People think that ethnic separatism will destroy Russia, so it is unlikely. It’s too obvious, that’s why precautionary measures are being taken,” he claims.

Rich regions such as Siberia are crucial for Moscow

Galeyev argues that, if this happens, such a process of disintegration of Russia will most likely begin in regions where the world does not expect it, and that it will be provoked by interest groups that will demand more power and regional protectionism, going only to later make clear statements about their true intentions.

A researcher at the Wilson Center says that 3 types of regions in Russia are most likely to start this process: regions with a predominantly Russian population because the central leadership takes few precautions against them, regions with abundant natural resources and financially self-sufficient, and those with strong regional elites , only partially cleared by Moscow.

“The process of disintegration will likely take place over several iterations. The less the regions listen to Moscow and pay less taxes, the more the motivation of others will decrease from the point of view of cost-benefit analysis,” he claims.

This means that wealthier regions will have a higher motivation to desire independence from Moscow, Galeyev also noted that, contrary to popular belief, the collapse of empires and the formation of new states is regional, not ethnic or racial.

“For them to be successful, they have to be able to pay their bills. Therefore, the principle of economic clusters will be at least as important in drawing borders as ethnic or cultural ones,” he notes.

“The key issue is not about the Caucasus and not even about the Volga region. This is a question about Siberia. Siberia is the pearl that pays the bills of the Russian Empire. If he keeps control of Siberia, he can win back all the others. But if he loses it, it’s over,” concludes the researcher of Russian origin.