Vladimir Putin’s army has prioritized the capture of Bakhmut since August, but has allocated a disproportionate amount of resources to an object of no operational importance, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said in an assessment on Saturday morning.

What British military intelligence says:

• Russian forces continue to devote a significant portion of their overall military effort and firepower to a roughly 15-kilometer stretch of the front line around the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.
• The Russian plan is likely to surround the city with a tactical advance to the north and south.
• In recent days, it is very likely that Russia has made little progress in the southern direction of this assault, where it is trying to strengthen bridgeheads bounded to the west by the swampy area around the small Bakhmutka River.
• Since early August 2022, Bakhmut has become Russia’s number one priority and main offensive force. Capturing the city would have limited operational value, although it would potentially allow Russia to threaten larger urban areas in Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.
• However, the campaign was disproportionately expensive compared to these possible gains.
• There is a real possibility that this subjugation of Bakhmut became primarily a symbolic, political goal for Russia.

Incredibly tough battles with heavy losses for the Russians

Here’s what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an assessment released Friday night:

Russian troops continued to advance minimally around Bakhmut during offensive operations on Friday.

The General Staff of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian troops repelled attacks by Russian troops near Bakhmut, within a radius of 26 km northeast of Bakhmut, near Viyimka, and within a radius of 14 km south of Bakhmut, near Opytny, Kishchiivka, and Kurdyumivka.

Geolocation images released Thursday show Russian forces making minimal advances south and southeast of Bakhmut and near Opytny.

Russian military bloggers have said that Ukrainian forces are conducting reconnaissance around Klishchiivka, and fighting continues near the settlement, despite the fact that the Russians claim full occupation of the settlement.

A Russian blogger said that Russian troops have advanced near Spirny (30 km northeast of Bakhmut) and are preventing Ukrainian forces from transferring units to advanced positions in the area.

Russian bloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops were transferring units from the Zaporizhzhia region to the Bakhmut region, and assumed that this meant that Ukrainian forces were in a critical situation on this part of the front.

The intended rotation of units in this area by Ukrainian forces would be impossible if Russian forces had the opportunity to attack all the roads in the Bakhmut area, as a Russian source previously stated.

On Friday, the Joint Task Force released an interview with a Ukrainian soldier in the Bakhmut area, in which he says that conditions are incredibly harsh and that Russian forces are continuing to advance in the area despite heavy casualties.

ISW continues to view Russia’s efforts to capture Bakhmut as a costly endeavor focused on a city of limited operational importance.