Russian efforts near Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, indicate Russia has “fundamentally failed to learn from previous high-casualty campaigns,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment of the conflict.

Well-known anti-tank barriers with concrete weights are installed on the street of the front-line city of Bakhmut, Donetsk regionPhoto: Yasuyoshi CHIBA / AFP / Profimedia

Although Russian forces have continued to focus on small settlements in the area since the end of May, they have managed to secure only a few kilometers in six months, losing soldiers and equipment in the process, ISW said.

This scheme is reminiscent of the Russian campaign to seize Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, near the border with Luhansk Oblast, in June and July. Russia eventually captured these two cities, but the success provided no real operational advantage for Russia in the east.

According to ISW, even if Russia succeeds in capturing Bakhmut, the costs associated with capturing the city will far exceed the operational benefits of the city itself.

The costs of six months of intense fighting around Bakhmut far outweigh any operational advantage the Russians might gain by capturing it.

Russian offensives in the area continue to deplete the available combat power of Putin’s army, contributing to Ukrainian counteroffensives elsewhere, the US think tank also noted.

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