Russia’s invasion of Ukraine served as a catalyst and accelerated pre-existing trends both in the international system and in the foreign policy of Greece and Turkey. Our country completely and unconditionally followed the policy of the West, while Turkey followed the well-known balancing tactics, playing on a double board. This different approach is consistent with the strategy that the two countries have pursued historically and especially in recent years.

As for Greece, besides the moral question and the self-evident rejection of any revisionism, the adoption of a clear position, providing assistance to Ukraine and getting rid of the nodal port of Alexandroupolis directly strengthened its position in the Western camp and indirectly the external balance of the Turkish threat. The Greek position had strategic implications and was also justified by the turn of events.

On the other hand, Turkey, which in search of its strategic autonomy from the West increased its dependence on Russia, found itself in an insurmountable dilemma and, as it had done many times in the past, tried to overcome it by pursuing a strategy of balances and compensations. While initially most analysts predicted that the longer the war dragged on, the more difficult Turkey would become and lead it into a dead end, Ankara, helped by events, handled the situation very skillfully and not only remained unscathed, but also strengthened its prestige. internationally through its contribution to the grain export agreement. Ankara managed to mediate between Moscow and the West. Also impressive is the strengthening of Turkey’s position in relation to Russia, which led to a change in the relationship of dependence between them.

This turn is also a consequence of Russia’s geopolitical mystery. The loss of prestige and influence was evident at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Samarkand, as well as at the G20 summit in Bali. But a typical example is when, on October 29, after Ukraine’s successful attack on the Russian fleet in Sevastopol, Russia announced it was withdrawing from the grain deal, Erdogan’s decisive intervention came to Putin to “bring it back.”

The security and stability of Greece is essential to the Western security architecture. That’s why Erdogan is not going to come all of a sudden one night!

Relations between the two countries have come a long way since 2015, when Turkish diplomats literally begged Moscow to lift the embargo on agricultural products. Before the start of the war, Turkey was dependent on Russia for energy security, agricultural exports, and tourism. Turkey needed Russia to carry out its policy in Syria, the Caucasus and even Libya. As Turkey prepared for another invasion of northern Syria a few months ago, President Putin’s objections halted its plans. There was interdependence, but it was skewed in favor of Russia, and if the latter achieved the goal of seizing all the coasts of Ukraine, Turkey’s security in the Black Sea would be precarious.

But now everything is different. Russia is retreating at the front, and the Russian economy is in dire need of imports from Turkey. In 2021, Turkey was not even in the top 10 trading partners of Russia. Now it is the third partner after China and Belarus and above Germany. The main thing is that only through Turkey can Russia bypass sanctions and establish vital imports of Western products, mainly technological ones. By not participating in the sanctions, Turkey has benefited the most both economically and politically. Their bilateral trade increased by 200% and the balance for the first 9 months of 2022 is a surplus of 28 billion euros for Turkey.

Turkey’s balancing strategy is a product of its geography and history, and it has applied it with great skill in recent years. It has developed and uses all means of force: the armed forces, soft power, the defense industry, and special services. He condemned the Russian attack but blamed the West for the war. Bypasses sanctions against Russia, but also supplies drones to Ukraine. It creates constant problems for NATO, but on the other hand, has the second largest army and willingly participates with a significant amount of assets and personnel in the missions and operations of the Alliance. He maintains relations with Islamist organizations, but provides information to the US, France, Israel, etc. It uses refugees, but, on the other hand, it is a country with the largest number of refugees on its territory. It uses hard power to implement its aggressive and revisionist policies, but in return spends huge sums on development cooperation and humanitarian aid ($8 billion in 2020 and $7.5 billion in 2021, but most of which went to northern Syria). Turkey is annoying but useful, so no one wants to “lose” it.

No one wants to lose her, but no one trusts her either. What he gains from the above loses credibility. He is in constant balance exercise. When it leans too far to one side, it stays open to the other. Her “geopolitical blanket” is not enough for her ambitions. As well as its unstable economy, which is very dependent on the West. NATO remains a pillar of its security, as well as a lever of influence. As much as it wants its strategic autonomy, it cannot distance itself from the West. Greece, on the other hand, with its participation in the EU. and NATO, thanks to strategic agreements concluded with France and the United States, with the ports of Souda and Alexandroupolis, has strengthened its position. The security and stability of our country is essential to the Western security architecture. That’s why Erdogan is not going to come all of a sudden one night!

* Mr. Alexandros Diakopoulos – Vice Admiral P.N. (ea), Former National Security Adviser, ELIAMEP Special Adviser.