USA heading to the polls to decide the composition of the US Congress for the next two years of Joe Biden’s presidency, as 470 seats in the legislature are at stake (35 in the Senate and all 435 in the House of Representatives). More than 40 million voters have already voted by mail as this year’s midterm elections are expected to break all turnout records.

What is at stake?

Traditionally, midterm elections act like a “referendum” on the incumbent president and how he has done (or hasn’t) done with the economy. Historically, the president’s party has always lost seats in Congress, except for the last 100 years in 1934, 1998 and 2002. “rap” is the one who controls the White House, as Perry Bacon Jr. writes. in the Washington Post.

But for many, these choices are different. “This is a battle for the very soul of America,” President Biden exclaimed last week, and on Sunday he said “democracy is literally at stake in the vote,” echoing the alarm of many Democrats who see the current midterm elections as critical to self-determination. the survival of American democracy. According to the Guardian, 80% of Democratic voters view the election in this light, while 92% of Republicans consider the economy the most important issue.

This is the first election since the events on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021, the first election since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. USA. Wade and abolish the federal right to abortion.

The shadow of Donald Trump appears in every aspect of this election. The “Big Lie,” the former president’s insistence that the Democrats “rigged” the 2020 election, and its constant repetition by many Republicans, as well as by the media, friendly observers of his party, have led to a terrible distortion of the Democratic process.

“This is a referendum for both of them. [Μπάιντεν και Τράμπ]This was reported to Politico by Lee Miringoff, director of the MIPO Center for Research and Polling.

According to The Guardian, one of the big risks Democrats see is that if Republicans take important positions, both at the federal and state levels, and Donald Trump tries to be re-elected president, there will be an opportunity not to resist his attempt to cancel election results, as was done in 2020.

Predictions

The omens are not good for the Democrats. “The Republicans will gain control of the House of Representatives, but the Senate is still in the process of being taken over,” said Stephen Shapard of Politico. 218 representatives are needed to control the House of Representatives, with Politico predicting that there are 216 likely Republicans and a total of 194 Democrats.

According to FiveThirtyEight, considered one of the most authoritative sources of statistical analysis, the chances of Republicans to control the House of Representatives exceed 80%.

In the worst-case scenario, some analysts believe there is also a possibility of a Democratic defeat in the election, as there is a risk of a “red wave” sweeping away seats in areas considered safe Democratic strongholds, such as New York and Oregon, according to an article in Bill’s former adviser. Clinton Douglas E. Sean on the hill.

In the Senate, the campaign is more ambivalent, but the Republicans are considered to have a marginal lead. The current composition of the Senate is divided equally, with 50 senators from each party. Republicans need only one electoral victory to take power into their own hands.

According to the Washington Post, the outcome of the Senate election will also be very important for the 2024 election, since a good result for the Republicans now would make it possible for the party to gain a majority (more than 60 senators) in the next election.

The most important election contests are held in the states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. Elections in Pennsylvania are also of particular interest to Greece, as Republican candidate Mehmet Oz has close ties to the government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The next day

The future composition of Congress will play a catalytic role on the US political map.

First, Republican control of the legislature will create big “headaches” for the Biden administration, as it will find obstacles to approving measures and reforms that would lead to greater use of presidential decrees. As in the past, there will be fierce fighting as the line between the White House and the Capitol will resemble trenches.

Second, Tuesday’s results will be a big factor in the 2024 election. A demolition of Democrats could reinforce calls for Biden not to run for a second term, while for Republicans, a Republican Trump victory could almost certainly lead to Trump’s 2024 nomination. On the other hand, if Trump’s nominees fail, other potential Republican candidates, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (with whom Trump announced an unofficial midterm truce), could get a boost.

Thirdly, according to the BBC, the predominance of Republicans could mean the start of the work of congressional investigative committees that will deal with the Biden presidency and put an end to the work of the commission investigating the events of January 6. Possible committees could look into Biden’s son Hunter’s trade relations with China and Ukraine, as well as the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. This is what would-be House Speaker Kevin McCarthy confirmed to CNN.

Republican control of Congress also opens the window for a possible impeachment against Joe Biden, which many members of the party are calling for. McCarthy told CNN the no-confidence vote should not be used “politically” but he did not rule out the possibility, saying “it doesn’t mean that if something comes up, it won’t be used.”

Sources: Politico, The Washington Post, CNN, FiveThirtyEight, The Hill, BBC, The Guardian.