The climate was bad, the war ate it along with it. energy crisis. With these thoughts most welcome the news of its beginning 27th UN Conference per changing of the climate, which will be held in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on the Red Sea from 6 to 18 November. And the very fact that the Egyptian government has chosen this particular place, and not the noisy, constantly overloaded and often breathless Cairo (or some other large city), betrays the beautification efforts, which, unfortunately, does not concern only Egypt. The reality is that after the sudden “breathing” of the pandemic in 2020, when lockdowns led to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, what followed is probably a return to the same, only worse.

In 2021, according to his recent statement World Meteorological Organization (WMO), greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations rose more sharply. The increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels from 2020 to 2021 has exceeded the average annual growth rate over the past decade, reaching 415.7 parts per million (ppm). The annual increase in methane, the second most important factor in global warming, was the largest since 1983, when systematic recording began.

Heartbreaking Facts

Measurements from network stations Global Atmosphere Service WMO shows levels continue to rise in 2022 worldwide. Under the conditions of war, sanctions and restrictions-closures of energy trade routes, the energy crisis and intense competition between states, any climate obligations fade into the background, and hydrocarbons (natural gas, oil, coal, lignite) return to the fore. The consequences will be long-term.

In this context, what can be expected from COP27 in Egypt? “Of course, this will not be a halt in the course of climate negotiations, but important policy issues and mainly economic interventions will be discussed,” says Dr. Sevastianos Moirasgentis “K”.director of research at the Athens National Observatory, specializing in climate change policy.

Methodologically, we can divide the agenda into two main areas: first, in the field of prevention-prevention, that is, mainly in the field of limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Secondly, in terms of adaptation and protection from the effects of climate change, which is already happening.

UNEP describes states’ commitments as “grossly inadequate” and explains that “there is no reliable path to 1.5 degrees Celsius”.

New national plans

In the first area, a revised national emission control plan will be discussed. “According to the Paris Agreement, every five years the goals should be reviewed based on developments and scientific assessments. Since there was no conference in 2020 due to COVID-19, this commitment was moved to the Glasgow conference,” explains Dr. Moirasgentis. However, even there, many countries did not submit updated plans, so the whole case was postponed until COP27. The picture, of course, is not very good. The planet is on the right track, according to the latest analysis of the goals of the UN Environment Program announced by 194 countries, which account for 90% of emissions. temperature rise by 2.4-2.6 degrees Celsius by 2100! UNEP describes government commitments as “grossly inadequate” and clarifies that there is “no reliable path to 1.5 degrees Celsius” when average temperatures have already risen by at least 1.1 degrees Celsius during the industrial age.

“There is no specific emission reduction target. The goals are formulated for 2050 and 2070, and the first critical date is 2030. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already set a goal from 2025 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that we are moving in this direction,” emphasizes the researcher at the observatory.

In the area of ​​prevention, COP27 is also expected to specify the goals and ways to follow up on the decisions made in Glasgow, for example to cut methane by 30% by 2030, to create 1000 climate neutral cities by 2040, to zero emissions from banking systems, etc.

Transnational Solidarity

In the second area, that of adaptation and transnational solidarity, many open economic questions remain. “The decision was made in Glasgow to double the fund from $20 billion to $40 billion, which will be allocated by the international community for adaptation. However, it remains open who will receive this amount and with what indicators. Concentrate, of course…” Dr. Moirasgentis explains, “Also, since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, there has been an obligation of the richest countries to transfer $100 billion annually to climate-affected and economically weaker countries. has been fully achieved, as the largest amount raised in one year was $83 billion.Here, too, a way must be found to honor the agreement.” There is also a proposal (mainly from countries in the South) for a with the climate crisis.Here, too, a strict harmonization of terms and definitions is expected.

With such an agenda, COP27 in the sterile environment of Sharm el-Sheikh looks more like a deal over who will pay the climate Titanic boatman than an international effort to prevent it.