In the last 48 hours, there have been reports of a possible withdrawal of Russia from its defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnieper. Although the maneuver may fit into General Surovikin’s overall strategy for Ukraine, it will be difficult to execute successfully, Mick Ryan said on Sundayretired Major General of the Australian Army.

The Institute for the Study of War reported on Saturday morning that the retreat of the Russians from the western Kherson region had begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue this withdrawal over the next few weeks, but may have difficulty withdrawing in an orderly manner if Ukrainian forces decide to attack, the ISW explained.

General Mick Ryan explains why it will be difficult for the Russians to retreat:

“Somewhere in the headquarters of the combined Russian army in southern Ukraine, a staff officer pulls out a doctrinal manual to plan an orderly withdrawal of Russian forces back across the Dnipro.

Why are withdrawals made and what are their considerations?

A troop withdrawal, considered a “retrograde operation” in US military doctrine, is designed to allow forces to withdraw from the enemy and redeploy to a new mission or location while minimizing casualties.

The following quote from Australian Army doctrine is also useful: “Withdrawal is a task routinely used in mobile defense or to delay the overall objective of resuming offensive action… should be regarded as a routine tactic and not as a harbinger of disaster.”

For the Russians, the reasons for retreating across the Dnieper may be the difficulty of resupplying, the need for these troops for more important tasks, and the likelihood that holding their current positions will result in their destruction.

It is vital to hide what you are doing from the enemy, but…

I know the Russians didn’t stick to their own doctrine very well in this war. But once the exit decision is made, what are the planning considerations?

First, concealment is vital. However, the reality is that it is difficult to hide the intention to retreat from the enemy.

At some point, it becomes clear what will happen.

However, some concealment can be achieved through increased patrolling, increased fire support, decoys, imitation of normal actions, and communication discipline.

For the Russians on the west bank of the Dnieper, it will be difficult, but not impossible.

Correct extraction order is vital

The second aspect to consider is the order in which the retreat will occur. This concerns when and how to evacuate logistics, headquarters, intelligence elements, and ground combat forces.

It will depend on the location and the force with which the enemy is pressing the retreating party.

For the Russians, getting the sequence right will be vital. They will have to find a balance between preserving their forces and using them to contain the advancing Ukrainian forces.

They need enough power to prevent a breakthrough, but not so much that they lose a significant portion of their power.

Someone will want to run faster

The third problem for Russia will be preventing Ukrainians from interfering in the withdrawal process.

We should expect an increase in air defenses, obstacles and artillery used by the retreating Russians, as well as more air support.

They can also use civilians as human shields.

The fourth aspect will be command and control. It’s not just about who is in charge. It is about control over orderly extraction in a planned manner.

Military police are vitally important in controlling road space, road discipline, and ensuring that units do not “abandon” defensive positions prematurely.

Control also means good combat discipline. Tactical leaders at all levels must hold their positions until the designated withdrawal time.

This can be very difficult when there is a strong tendency to move backwards earlier than planned.

And that combat discipline is all the more likely to break down as the size of the remaining defense force shrinks.

Russia’s combat leadership and discipline in this war were not very good. The final stage of their retreat can be expected to be chaotic.

In the rear guard, there will probably be tank troops

As a rule, the retreating forces want to achieve a so-called “clean disengagement”. It is the separation of the enemy in such a way as to avoid his ability to track and harass the retreating forces.

The Dnipro River will be a key element of Russia’s approach to “clean secession.” Again, the correct sequence of troop withdrawals is critical to achieving a clean withdrawal.

A lot of artillery (probably from the east bank of the Dnieper), jamming and air support will be needed. And many ferries for transporting troops and equipment across the Dnipro.

An important part of a clean break is an effective rear guard. Rear-guard forces can help ensure the safe separation of retreating forces and prevent enemy pursuit.

I expect that in the case of the Russians, the rear guard will consist of armored and motorized infantry forces.

These forces can move and fight quickly, and are more likely to retreat and survive to cross the Dnieper and fight another time.

It is possible that recruits will be left to fight and die

However, we could also see the Russians “dumping” newly mobilized troops to stay, fight, delay and die to buy time to retreat.

After all, a successful retreat requires excellent planning and coordination. But it is supported by good management.

The concept of how the withdrawal will be organized and executed must come from the superior commander.

A lot can go wrong for them

This senior commander must have excellent tactical acumen, a good understanding of the terrain, and a good assessment of the capabilities of the retreating force.

He must understand that the wrong approach can result in the loss of the entire retreating force.

With reports that the Russians are beginning to back down, we may see how these considerations play out for them in the coming days and weeks.

There are many things that can go wrong with them. And on their wave will be a determined and aggressive Ukrainian land force.

The Ukrainians will seek to destroy or capture as many Russian troops as possible on the west bank of the Dnieper.

Not only would these Russians not be able to resume offensive operations in the future, it would also be a significant blow in terms of strategic influence.

And, finally, the capture of the western bank prevents any short-term Russian offensive on Odesa. It will also be a launching pad for future Ukrainian offensives to liberate the rest of the south of the country, including Crimea.”

Literature:

• “No living Russian general can change the situation at the front”: as evidenced by Vladimir Putin’s latest steps
• Where might the next major Ukrainian offensive take place? The Russian army is going through a period of shock
• The general explains the great asset of the “actor” Zelensky in front of Vladimir Putin
• What are Ukrainians waiting for to start a large-scale offensive? Explanation of general

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