The Russians are preparing public opinion to justify the planned retreats and significant territorial losses in the Kherson region by the statements of the commander of the armed forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, General Serhiy Surovikin, who said that he had to make “difficult decisions”, accusing Ukraine of planning to strike at civilian and residential infrastructure in the Kherson region oblast, states the Institute for the Study of War in its latest assessment of the conflict in Ukraine.

And the speech of Volodymyr Saldo, the acting governor of the Kherson region imposed by Moscow, indicates that the Russians are preparing public opinion for the complete withdrawal of the Russians for the Dnipro, which will hand over the city of Kherson and other important territories of the Kherson region. region, where Ukrainian troops are advancing, announcing that the occupation administration is evacuating the western bank of the Dnieper due to fears of a major offensive by troops from Kyiv.

The military leadership appears to have learned from previous failures during the Kharkiv counteroffensive and is trying to prepare for another successful offensive.

In this context, the Russians want to cover up their possible defeat near Kherson, pointing to the fake shelling of the Kakhovskaya HPP, accusing the Ukrainian troops of wanting to bomb it, in fact to cover up the withdrawal of the Russian army from the right bank. Dnieper and to prevent Ukrainian troops from advancing across the river.

Russian authorities likely intend to use these warnings to create conditions for Russian forces to damage the dam and blame Ukraine for the subsequent damage and loss of life.

A false flag attack to blame Ukraine

The Kremlin may try to use such a fake attack to overshadow the news of the humiliating third withdrawal of Russian troops, this time from western Kherson.

Such an attack would also help Russia portray Ukraine as a terrorist state that deliberately attacks the civilian population.

Moscow also continues to use the pretext of civilian “evacuation” as a cover for the mass forced removal of people from the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine.

Saldo’s announcement of a mass withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River is likely partly aimed at evacuating Russian occupation officials and collaborators in anticipation of an imminent Ukrainian offensive, but the Russians are likely using the so-called humanitarian crisis to deport large numbers of people. Ukrainians to Russia, reports ISW.

Russia’s challenge in Kherson

ISW’s analysis is also supported by British military intelligence, which said in its Thursday morning assessment that General Surovikin’s statement, which highlighted negative news about a “special military operation”, was highly unusual.

His televised intervention likely indicates that Russian authorities are seriously considering a large-scale withdrawal of their forces from the area west of the Dnipro River, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said.

The biggest challenge during the Russian withdrawal operation would be getting the troops and their equipment across the river, given that all the bridges are badly damaged.

Therefore, Russia will likely rely heavily on the temporary barge bridge it has completed near Kherson in recent days and the ferries that continue to operate in several locations.

What is Putin trying to achieve by introducing martial law

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s imposition of martial law is largely legal theater designed to legitimize the actions the Russian military is to take or is already taking, while setting the stage for future mobilization and domestic constraints.

These steps are likely necessary to meet basic military needs such as food, housing, equipment and transportation for mobilized and conscripted troops to the front lines, to force defense contractors or other private enterprises to comply with government production requirements, and to facilitate controls. both the Russian population and the Ukrainian civilian population in the territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia.

Since September, Putin has slowly introduced concepts and legal frameworks such as military and economic mobilization, annexation, and martial law among the Russian population in an attempt to normalize these concepts and limit domestic dissent.

Putin probably understands that these measures are unpopular, but they may be based on a surge of patriotism as more Russian families and companies become connected and involved in the war in Ukraine.

It is also possible that Putin will create conditions for the forced mobilization of the peaceful Ukrainian population in the territories occupied by Russia, compensating for the losses and failures of partial mobilization.

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