ANCHOR. Over seven million Turkish rushed to sign up for a major social housing program announced Tayyip Erdogan in mid-September, according to data provided yesterday Financial Times. The program, estimated to cost around $50 billion, is one of the key assets of Erdogan’s campaign in the months leading up to the decisive spring standoff.

OUR Organization of residence in Turkey (TOKI) will undertake the construction of 500,000 houses and 50,000 commercial premises, which will be transferred to the economically weaker on preferential terms of financing. The construction of the first apartments will begin next month, while the selection mechanisms and waiting periods for beneficiaries are unknown. But the very existence of the program, as well as the clumsy handling of it by the opposition, is believed to be working for the Turkish president. The opposition has repeatedly said that the housing program will never come to fruition, that it should have started earlier, that it is unrealistic and designed to support Erdogan’s friends in the construction industry.

Criticism of the opposition

Some opposition figures warn that by criticizing the social housing program, the opposition is falling into the trap of Erdogan, who argues that, as bad as it is for the poorest Turks, a change of government will only make them worse.

Turkey’s president is playing the benefits card by widening the 2022 budget deficit.

During the presentation of the program, the President of Turkey spoke about “the largest social housing program in the history of the Republic of Turkey.” Analysts agree and believe that other high-spending programs should emerge. “I expect them to do their best, more than they have done in the past because there is so much at stake in this election,” economics professor Gulzin Ezkan told a British newspaper. “Whatever is announced about the amount of fiscal support or loan guarantees will not surprise me.” Turkey’s budget was balanced in the nine months of 2022, but given the new social programs, it is expected that the year will end with a deficit of 3%. “This is crazy spending,” the British newspaper notes.

Housing prices have risen 53% in a year, making rent unaffordable. According to the announcements, installment loans for home purchases will start at $120 per month. The apartments will be built in all 81 provinces of Turkey and, at least according to the announcements, they will have environmental features to save energy. The housing agency has already provided housing for 1.2 million households, which partly explains the loyalty of the popular strata to Erdogan.

Even during the most difficult period for the Turkish president in the spring, his percentage in public opinion polls did not fall below 35%, while the opposition looks divided. In June, 77% of respondents in a Metropol survey said the economy was poorly managed. In July, after a 30% increase in the minimum wage, just six months after the first 50% increase, discontent began to subside. In the coming months, another big increase in the minimum wage, an increase in the salaries and pensions of civil servants, as well as access to cheap loans for individuals and legal entities is expected. Many additional measures are expected to be announced during the presentation of Tayyip Erdogan’s election program.

The Financial Times notes that the impact of spending on the country’s financial position will be manageable. However, analyst Attila Gesilanda told the newspaper that these spending could trigger a new crisis in the value of the Turkish lira, similar to the one that occurred in December 2021. “It will be a miracle if Erdogan spends so much money without increasing inflation or devaluing currencies,” he said.