In his recent speech, Mr. Vladimir Putin hinted that he might go to use of nuclear weapons to protect their country, while recent information shows that the US has been sending “private” warnings to Moscow for months about “serious consequences” if the Russian president takes such action.

Recall that in his speech, Putin announced a partial mobilization and stressed that in the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of Russia, the Kremlin “will definitely use all means at its disposal to protect Russia and its people,” pointing out that his warnings were not justified. just a bluff.

For his part, Putin’s predecessor as Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said on Thursday that “any weapon, including strategic or nuclear weapons, can be used to defend the Russian Federation and its annexed territories.”

However, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Friday that Moscow is not threatening anyone with nuclear weapons and that open confrontation with the US and NATO is not in Russia’s interests.

At the same time, the Russian ambassador to the United States said that, despite all the difficulties, he wants to believe that Moscow and Washington are not on the verge of “the abyss of nuclear war.”

So what is the West’s role in these new developments, and to what extent should the planet be concerned about a nuclear attack, given that the Russian president is facing growing difficulties and even his allies seem to be changing their stance?

Private negotiations between the USA and Moscow

The US has been in talks with Moscow for months, warning it of serious consequences if nuclear weapons are used, US officials say.

The Biden administration has so far deliberately kept these warnings vague so that the Kremlin is worried about a possible reaction from Washington, officials say. This tactic is also known as “strategic ambiguity”.

The private talks with Moscow in question were conducted by the State Department, but officials have not disclosed who relayed the American messages or their exact content.

In addition, it remains unclear whether the US issued a new warning after Putin’s speech last Wednesday.

Biden’s mission

Western analysts say US President Joe Biden’s mission is now clear and is to guide the international community in the context of the biggest nuclear threat since the Cold War.

First, Biden will have to find a way to prevent Putin from going that route, as well as prepare a US response in the event of an escalation from the Russian president.

According to an analyst at the Atlantic Council think tank, the American president has several options. One possible response in the event of a limited Russian nuclear strike would be to tighten up the measures already taken against Moscow.

Such a response would be aimed at preventing further escalation. But the problem is that this solution may not be effective enough to stop Putin. Moreover, such a limited response from the United States would seem highly inadequate to both Ukraine and the rest of the world.

For the reasons above, Biden’s response should be more forceful.

Two military variants

The American president has two military options: one is to retaliate by holding a small nuclear “demonstration” in the Arctic Ocean or remote Siberia as a “warning” to Putin.

This, however, could turn the confrontation between Russia and the West into an apocalyptic scenario, which could lead to a series of such exercises. It should also be noted that Russia has about 10 times more nuclear warheads than the United States. It is very difficult to work out possible scenarios, especially if you take into account the factor of human error. There will be danger of Armageddon.

So the best option would be a regular US strike on Russian forces. The target could be the very base from which the nuclear attack was launched. Or it could be Russian troops in Ukraine.

Such a response would send a signal to Putin that he cannot escalate and de-escalate tensions because the West will intervene to crush him. The problem with this tactic is that it will lead to immediate conflict between Russia and NATO and, as a result, to the risk of World War III.

However, there are analysts who doubt that Putin would take such a risk at a time when his allies such as China and India seem to be drifting away from him.

Changing attitudes of Russia’s allies

Western officials have said many times that Russia is isolated from the international community because of its invasion of Ukraine. Until recently, however, these statements could be characterized more as wishful thinking.

Nevertheless, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, a significant part of the international community spoke out against the war at the UN. However, it is emphasized that the facts turned against Putin even before these positions. The leaders of China and India criticized the war at a summit in Uzbekistan.

The same thing happened at the UN General Assembly, where the two countries voiced their deep concern about the lack of food and energy caused by the war in Ukraine. In addition, they spoke about threats to the principles of national sovereignty and territorial integrity described in the UN Charter.

Only Belarus spoke out in support of Russia, but it also called for an early cessation of hostilities, which it called a “tragedy.”

China case

As far as Beijing is concerned, the change in attitude towards Putin is not particularly surprising, especially after Russia’s recent humiliating defeats in Ukraine, which exposed Putin’s weaknesses to both his rivals and allies.

Some Chinese analysts say Putin’s difficulties and the escalation of the war are giving China an opportunity to distance itself from Russia.

But others remain skeptical, arguing that Putin’s acceptance of Beijing’s concerns does not necessarily signal a split between the two allies.

On the contrary, it could be a way for China to gain some diplomatic leeway, especially since its tacit support for Russia has damaged Beijing’s image in Europe, said Teresa Fallon, director of the Center for Russia, Europe and Asia Studies.

What’s next for the West?

Putin’s latest threats have put both the US and Europe in a difficult position, as Western leaders now face a “thorny” choice.

The Atlantic Council analyst says the US government needs to take Putin’s threats seriously while keeping a cool head. He also points out that Putin has so far not used nuclear weapons because he fears a backlash from the US and NATO, which should pick up on the Russian president’s fear and use it to reinforce their deterrent warnings.

In a statement, the White House warned that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons would have “serious consequences.” If, according to the same analyst, Moscow goes down this path, the US will have to launch a limited military strike against Russian forces that will launch a nuclear strike. Kyiv, meanwhile, will have to keep fighting to win the war.