A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region is straining Russian forces and causing the collapse of the Russian axis in northern Donbass, according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on Sunday morning.

Russian troops are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are in a hurry to flee from the southeast of the Kharkiv region in order to get out of the encirclement around the city of Izyum.

As a result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, 3,000 km2 of territory was liberated

Russian forces have previously weakened their northern axis in Donbas by redeploying units from the area to southern Ukraine, complicating efforts to slow Ukraine’s advance or at least deploy a cover force for the withdrawal.

Ukrainian offensives are not limited to the Izyum region; Ukrainian forces captured Velikiy Burluk on Saturday, which would put Ukrainian forces 15 kilometers from the Russian border.

In the past five days since September 6, Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines up to 70 kilometers deep and captured more than 3,000 square kilometers of territory – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all operations since April.

The liberation of Izyum is the greatest military achievement since the battle for Kyiv

Ukrainian troops will probably even capture the city of Izyum in the next 48 hours, if they have not already done so, the ISV notes.

The liberation of Izyum would become the most important Ukrainian military achievement after the victory in the March battle near Kyiv.

This would eliminate the offensive of the Russians in the north-west of the Donetsk region along the E40 route, which the Russian army was trying to bypass the Ukrainian positions on the Slavyansk – Kramatorsk line.

A successful encirclement of Russian forces fleeing Izyum would have resulted in the destruction or capture of significant Russian forces and exacerbated Russia’s personnel and morale problems.

Russian military correspondents and military bloggers have also reported difficulties in evacuating from Izyum, indicating that Ukrainian forces are conducting at least a partial encirclement in some areas.

A wave of lies from the Russian Ministry of Defense

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the withdrawal of troops from the Balaklia-Izyum line on September 10, unrealistically calling the withdrawal a “regroupment” of forces to support Russia’s efforts in the direction of Donetsk region – just like the Kremlin. after the retreat of the Russians after the defeat in the battle of Kiev.

The Ministry of Defense did not recognize the Ukrainian successes around the Kharkiv region as the main factor in Russia’s withdrawal and claimed that during the last three days, the Russian military command carried out a controlled withdrawal from the Balaklia-Izyum area.

Moscow has falsely claimed that Russian forces have staged a series of demonstration actions and used artillery and aircraft to secure retreating Russian forces.

These Russian statements have nothing to do with the situation on the ground.

The inability of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to recognize Russia’s miscalculations in the Kharkiv region and to effectively establish information conditions leads to the collapse of the Russian information space.

Confusion among Kremlin propagandists

Kremlin propagandists offered a wide range of obscure explanations for Ukrainian successes, from justifications that Russian forces were fighting the entire Western bloc to downplaying the importance of Russian ground-based lines of communication (GLOCS) in Kupyansk.

Moscow propagandists were extremely disorganized in their reports: some confirmed the liberation of certain cities, while others denied such reports.

Also, the invited experts could not confirm the presenters’ narratives, according to which Ukrainian successes are not essential for the Donbas axis.

Such a broadcast could reveal the true course of the “special forces operation” to the general Russian public, which relies on information from state media and the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Russian bloggers and nationalists are outraged at the Ministry of Defense

The withdrawal announcement further alienated the milblogger community and Russian nationalists who support the Kremlin’s grandiose vision of conquering all of Ukraine.

Russian military bloggers condemned the Ministry of Defense for its silence, choosing to self-isolate and distorting the real situation.

One of them even stated that the silence of the Russian Ministry of Defense is a betrayal of the Russian military, which fought and is fighting in Ukraine.

Another also noted that Russia’s Ministry of Defense has repeatedly ignored or belittled a community of media bloggers who have raised concerns about Russia’s military leadership and lack of transparency on the frontline.

Before announcing the withdrawal, the Ministry of Defense of Russia released images of Russian military convoys, which probably moved to reinforce the Kharkiv area on September 9.

Many Russian publications and media bloggers expressed the hope that this reinforcement will stabilize the front line and repel the Ukrainian offensive on Izyum, despite the fact that the Russian Ministry of Defense did not address the current situation a few days ago.

Cracks in the propaganda facade of the Kremlin

Russian media bloggers would most likely have accepted the statement about the Ministry of Defense’s withdrawal, as they did earlier with Russia’s withdrawal from Snake Island and other Russian tactical losses, if the Russian information space was not saturated with images of Ukrainian successes.

Such inconsistencies in reporting further support ISW’s assessment that the Russian Ministry of Defense is facing challenges in responding to unexpected developments in its established information system, which portrays the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a smooth and error-free operation.

Most importantly, such inconsistent information practices undermine Russian society’s trust in the Russian Ministry of Defense’s communications and damage the Kremlin’s propaganda facade.

Russian bloggers also criticized the Russian occupation authorities for not organizing evacuation measures in the Kharkiv region.

Some have noted that the occupation administrations are disoriented and lack initiative.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive actually paralyzes the leadership of the Russian occupation, which probably fears for its fate.

Key findings of the Institute for the Study of War

• Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv region are destroying the Russian axis in northern Donbas, and Kyiv troops are likely to retake Izyum itself within the next 48 hours.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the withdrawal of troops from the Balaklia-Izyum line on September 10, and its failure to create effective information conditions leads to the collapse of the Russian information space.
• The announcement of the withdrawal and the inability of the occupation authorities to organize evacuation measures further alienates the communities of Russian mil bloggers and nationalists who support the Kremlin’s grandiose vision of conquering all of Ukraine.
• Ukrainian troops took up positions at a distance of 15-25 km from the Russian-Ukrainian border in the northeast of the Kharkiv region, on the northern outskirts of the city of Izyum, and on the southern and southwestern outskirts of the city of Liman. , and captured the western half of the city of Kupyansk.
• Russian troops are strengthening their advanced positions in the Kherson region, while Ukrainian troops are conducting positional battles and continuing the campaign to destroy enemy strongholds.
• Moscow forces launched limited ground attacks north of the city of Kharkiv, south of Bakhmut and west of the city of Donetsk.
• Russian recruitment drives are causing some criticism among Russian military bloggers and in Russian regions.
• It is reported that Russian troops are intensifying infiltration measures in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions in response to the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops in the southern direction.

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