The Ukrainian army’s capture of Izyum halts Russia’s plans in Donetsk region, the Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment Monday morning, according to which Russian soldiers can no longer advance toward Bakhmut or Donetsk from the north.

Ukrainian military in an armored car on the road to Siversk, Donetsk regionPhoto: MIGUEL MEDINA / AFP / Profimedia

Using HIMARS and other Western weapons, Ukraine was able to inflict heavy operational losses on Russia in a quick counteroffensive and retake most of the Kharkiv region, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.

Ukraine’s use of Western systems in a well-planned and conducted campaign led to the extraordinary success of counteroffensive operations in the Kharkiv region.

The return of Izyum by the Ukrainians means that Russia will be able to achieve what it says it sought in Donetsk region after it was forced to retreat from Kyiv.

The loss of the city of Izyum will doom the original plan of the Russian campaign in Donbas, and the Russian advance towards Bakhmut or around the city of Donetsk cannot be decisive, if it happens.

Putin’s “fatal” mistake

According to the Institute for the Study of War, it is unlikely that Russia will advance further towards Bakhmut or Donetsk from the north, any advance towards these cities has lost real operational value.

The Institute of War notes that the counteroffensive in the Kherson region continues along the Dnieper, and claims that there is no reason to consider this counterattack fictitious.

The Ukrainian onslaught in the Kherson region, combined with a lightning counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, poses great difficulties for the Russians, who lack the strength to form a defensive line along the Oskil River to hold the border of the Luhansk region. .

Russian President Vladimir Putin would have made the simple but fatal mistake of not ordering the reinforcement of the Luhansk line, which would jeopardize Kherson’s defenses and put the Russian offensive around Bakhmut and Donetsk on hold, while the Ukrainians could benefit from his followed any order the Kremlin leader might give.

A swift Ukrainian counteroffensive will not end the war, which ISW predicts will last until 2023, but it is clear that Ukraine has now turned the tide of the war in its favor.

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