Back in early February last year, the leaders of Russia and China presented from Beijing before the start of the Winter Olympics their joint vision (a 5,300-word joint communiqué) of a Sino-Russian strategic partnership that “knows no boundaries.” (“no limits”), but only growth prospects.

“Russia-China: Putin and Xi’s Common ‘Front’ Against the West,” we wrote in K in early February. Since then, however, much has happened at the international level, and the Russian military invasion of Ukraine was the most shocking development in the past seven months.

Today, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met again face to face, for the first time in nearly seven months, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, which is taking place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan on September 15-16, attended by leaders from around 15 countries.

Opportunities and thorns

For the Chinese leader, his summit Shanghai Cooperation Organization it is an opportunity for him to showcase China’s influence over much of the globe.

On the other hand, for the Russian president, the two-day meetings that he will hold on September 15-16 will be an opportunity to prove that he is not isolated on the international stage, despite the war in Ukraine and what has happened in the past six months under the sanctions.

Both Putin and Xi want to send their own messages to the West against the backdrop of not only Ukraine “burning down” Russians, but also Taiwan “burning down” Beijing.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed today, addressing Chinese leader Xi Jinping, that Moscow supports his policies.One China(One China Policy) vs.Problems» USA in Taiwanapparently with an eye to the controversial recent visit of Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to the self-governing Asian island..

The Russian leader also said he appreciates “balanced positionon which China rests Ukrainian.

“We highly appreciate the balanced position of our Chinese friends regarding the crisis in Ukraine. We understand their questions and concerns about this. During today’s meeting, of course, we will explain our position.Putin stated this at the beginning of the meeting with Xi Jinping.

However, the Russian president’s reference to the – related to the war in Ukraine – Chinese “questions and concernscan be interpreted, according to the New York Times, as a confirmation of all those who in recent months have argued that Beijing does not perceive the Russian invasion of Ukraine positively.

It is recalled that in recent months there have been reports published, among other things, in which the Chinese appeared to be “negatively surprised” by the outbreak of war in Ukraine, which they did not expect, since Moscow did not inform them about it.

Since then, Russia’s war against Ukraine has gone worse for Moscow than expected, Russia has faced humiliating military setbacks, Putin has been isolated from the West, and the Russian economy has been hit by unprecedented sanctions.

Russian troops have suffered heavy losses on the battlefields in Ukraine, especially after the events of recent days in Kharkiv as well as Kherson.

Beijing, on the other hand, is increasingly at odds with Western countries over Taiwan and alleged human rights abuses in the Chinese province. xinjiang.

What does Moscow want? What gives Beijing?

Putin wants to meet with Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan to make it clear that he is still playing ball on the world stage with “teammates” who share not only his authoritarian views but also his vision of a new world order freed from American domination. . unipolar period.

On the other hand, for Xi Jinping, his first trips abroad (first to Kazakhstan and then to Uzbekistan) after nearly three years of the pandemic marks his return to the international stage.

“Of course, this is a show of mutual support and solidarity, a message primarily to the US and the West,” says Yun Sun, director of the Stimson Center’s China program, looking at the meeting between Mr. Putin and Xi today in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

However, Xi is unlikely to offer more concrete and tangible support to Putin, according to an analysis by The Washington Post and analysts in an interview with the New York Times. This could provoke retaliation (see sanctions) from the West at a critical time of challenge for Beijing (see Chinese economic slowdown, real estate crisis within Chinese borders, popular anger over China’s “zero Covid” approaching lead).

China has decided to maintain a delicate balance in the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine: on the one hand, it calls for peace, and on the other hand, it blames NATO, but does not actually support the Russian invasion by providing financial or military assistance.

Against the background of the war in Ukraine, China continued to export goods to Russia and import Russian oil and natural gas. According to Chinese data, bilateral Sino-Russian trade grew by 31% in the first eight months of 2022, but many argue that this increase has benefited China (which now buys Russian energy at discounted prices and increases its exports to Russia) more than Russia. . .

Xi in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

The day before his visit to Uzbekistan to attend the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan, whose authorities have been at odds with Moscow over Ukraine in recent months. Kazakhstan’s stance – some call it “pro-Western” – an attitude (which did not support Russia’s actions against Ukraine and did not recognize the self-proclaimed “people’s democracies” of Russophiles in eastern Ukraine, but instead largely respected Western sanctions) caused consternation in Moscow. .

In this context, however, there is also the view that Beijing could try to increase its influence in Asia … at the expense of Russia, by taking on the role of a patron power along with countries such as Kazakhstan, which have Russian minorities. their boundaries and reasons to fear Russian expansionism.

According to the Washington Post, New York Times.