Ukraine’s allies must commit to large-scale arms supplies and decades of investment in the country’s defense, according to a report that examines alternatives to Kyiv’s long-term bid to join NATO.

Anders Fogh RasmussenPhoto: NATO

The report was prepared at the request of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi, co-authors are the former Secretary General of NATO Anders Fogh Rasmussen and the head of Zelenskyi’s administration Andriy Yermak.

The aim of the report was to provide Ukraine with a security framework to ensure that Russia does not try to invade again, separate from Zelensky’s calls for the West to increase arms supplies to push Russian occupiers out of Ukrainian territories.

Ukraine’s possible future accession to NATO was one of the reasons Russia used to justify its invasion in February.

The report, which is the subject of wide diplomatic consultations, does not propose requiring NATO countries to collectively send troops to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, but says there should be no limits on military, diplomatic and economic assistance provided by NATO members in bilateral form agreements The level of support could be measured according to the level of threat and should apply to all internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.

The report states that “Ukraine’s strongest security guarantee lies in its ability to defend itself against an aggressor… To do this, Ukraine needs the resources to maintain a significant defense force capable of countering the armed forces and paramilitary formations of the Russian Federation.” .

“This requires sustained investment in Ukraine’s defense industrial base over several decades, arms transfers and intelligence support from allies, intensive training missions and joint exercises under the banner of the European Union and NATO.”

Among the allied countries that will join Ukraine are the USA, Great Britain, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey and the countries of Northern, Baltic, Central and Eastern Europe.

Military guarantees could provide Ukraine with obligations such as “closed skies” by providing means of anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense.

Warranties and issues related to such an alternative

The report states that the guarantees should not require Ukraine to limit the size of its armed forces or adopt a position of neutrality, but would require Ukraine to remain on the democratic path.

Critics of the report will question the feasibility of the proposed legal safeguards, the scale of financial support needed and the threat that such a powerful army would act in more than self-defense.

Ukrainian armed forces will be trained to NATO standards and scales to create a strong territorial defense and reserve force, including some form of conscription for civilians aged 18 and over. The training activities will be accompanied by a broad training program both on Ukrainian soil and with Ukrainian forces on the territory of the EU or NATO.

Non-NATO countries such as South Korea can offer non-military guarantees, such as a commitment to impose sanctions in the event of the next Russian attack. It is necessary to develop a legal framework that will allow the authorities to confiscate the property of the aggressor, its sovereign funds and reserves, as well as the assets of its citizens and organizations that are on the sanctions list.

Sanctions will not be lifted until Russia ceases its aggression against Ukraine, guarantees that it will not attack Ukraine in the future, and compensates Ukraine for the damage caused during the invasion.

Rasmussen said: “Once this war is over, we must ensure that Russia can never invade again. The best way to do this is to have a significant military force in Ukraine capable of countering any future Russian attack. Building and maintaining such forces will require the commitment of Ukraine’s allies for several decades.

“The adoption of these recommendations would send a powerful signal to Vladimir Putin. This would show that our commitment to Ukraine will not weaken, that his war is futile.”