According to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, the counteroffensive in southern Ukraine continues to have a significant impact on the morale and capabilities of the Russian military.

Russian soldiersPhoto: press service of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation / AP / Profimedia

Satellite images of known Russian positions in Kiselevka, 15 kilometers northwest of the city of Kherson, reviewed by ISW, show that only four Russian vehicles remain.

The town of Kiselyvka was strategically important for Russian forces as it is the last major settlement along the E58 highway and railway line between Ukrainian positions and Chornobayivka, ISW reports.

The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position could jeopardize the ability of the Russians to defend the northwestern outskirts of the city of Kherson, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Even if the Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkiv Region does not have such a strong psychological impact on the Russian troops in the south, the withdrawal of troops from Kiselyvka suggests that the Ukrainian troops are advancing significantly, but the result is overshadowed by the success of the counterattack. in Kharkiv.

The Russian military command is put to the test

Also, the success of recent Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may affect the desire or ability of the Russian military command to use new volunteers who arrive in Ukraine in a timely manner.

The General Staff of Ukraine said that the Russian military command had suspended sending new troops to Ukraine due to recent Russian casualties and widespread distrust of the Russian military command, factors that caused a large number of volunteers to flatly refuse to participate in combat operations.

This assessment is unconfirmed, but the low morale from the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is devastating to the Kremlin’s already weak ability to build a significant combat capability.

If Russia does not deploy new forces to strengthen its defensive lines, it will give Ukraine an advantage to increase its offensive.

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