The Ukrainian counteroffensive significantly worsens the logistical and administrative capabilities of Russia in the occupied south of Ukraine, according to the latest assessment of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukrainian officials have directly confirmed that Kyiv’s forces are trying to reduce Russia’s logistical capabilities in the south with precision strikes on manpower and equipment concentrations, command centers and logistics hubs.

Great influence on Moscow floors in the occupied zones

These counteroffensive actions also have the planned effect of influencing the Russian occupation authorities, the US think tank notes.

The head of the occupation regime in the Kherson region, Kyrylo Stremousov, told TASS that his administration suspended plans to hold a referendum on annexation in the Kherson region due to “security” considerations.

The “Ukrainian Resistance” Center also reported that the Russian occupation authorities are abandoning plans to hold referendums due to the continuation of the counteroffensive.

Shortly after TASS published his statement, Stremousov posted on Telegram denying that he had called for a suspension because his administration had never set an official date for the referendum.

Both of Stremousov’s statements indicate a high level of disorganization within the occupation regimes, which is likely to be exacerbated by the consequences of the counteroffensive.

Ukrainian forces intend to slowly reduce Russia’s tactical and operational capabilities in the Kherson region, and thus are likely to have a significant impact on the administrative and bureaucratic capabilities of occupation officials.

Putin criticizes the Russian military and praises pro-Russian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk

Vladimir Putin on Monday publicly praised the forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) and denigrated the Russian military, which is likely to motivate the recruitment of militants and change the way the invasion is portrayed in the Russian media space.

The President of Russia stated that the personnel of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps (Army of the DPR and LPR) are fighting in Donbas better than the professional Russian military, and hinted that he is dissatisfied with the work of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

These comments by Putin are likely intended to promote the recruitment and formation of troops in the “DPR” and “LPR” and to refocus the coverage of the war in the Russian media space from the fighting in southern Ukraine.

Russia’s military increasingly relies on DPR and LPR personnel as the backbone of its fighting forces, and the Kremlin is likely seeking to rhetorically boost their role in the war to boost recruitment and boost morale.

In addition, Putin is likely seeking to reinforce the Kremlin’s favorite (and false) narrative of his invasion of Ukraine, presented as an attempt to “protect” the DPR and LPR by praising their forces.

ISW Key Findings

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive actually degrades Russia’s logistical and administrative capabilities in the occupied south of Ukraine.
• Putin has publicly praised the forces of the “DPR” and “LPR” (and denigrated the Russian military), presumably to increase the recruitment of proxy forces and change the way the war is portrayed in Russia.
• The Ukrainian military remained silent about the course of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but reported on the further destruction of Russian ground communications in the Kherson region.
• Russian troops carried out ground strikes east of Siversk, northeast and south of Bakhmut, and along the northwestern outskirts of the city of Donetsk.
• Ukrainian special forces conducted a limited operation against the Russian FSB base in the Energodar region.
• Power Unit No. 6 of the ZNPP is disconnected from the Ukrainian power grid.
• The Russian authorities continue to look for non-traditional sources of fighting forces and increasingly turn to the sick and infirm.
• The occupying authorities established an exchange rate of 1.25 rub./1 hryvnia in the Zaporizhzhia region in order to facilitate the economic integration of the occupied region into the Russian Federation.

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