Heavy fighting has raged on three fronts in Ukraine over the past 24 hours, with Russian forces facing a threat along a 500-kilometre front, according to the latest assessment of the war, published on Wednesday by the British Ministry of Defence.

Battles Ukraine, day 196Photo: liveuamap.com

The main conclusions drawn by British officials based on military intelligence reports:

  • for the last day, fierce battles were fought on 3 fronts: in the north, near Kharkiv; in the east in Donbas; and in the south in the Kherson region, where the Ukrainian counteroffensive, launched last week, became the tenth;
  • the main planned Russian effort is likely to be an advance towards Bakhmut in the Donbas, but commanders face a dilemma: whether to deploy their operational reserves to support this offensive or use them to defend against further Ukrainian advances from the south;
  • Multiple simultaneous threats on a 500-kilometer front will test Russia’s ability to coordinate operational planning and reallocate resources among multiple force groups;
  • earlier in the war, Russia’s inability to do this was one of the main reasons its armed forces were underperforming.

The Ukrainian army took advantage of the transfer of Russian troops to Kherson

In its assessment of the hostilities in Ukraine, the US Institute for the Study of War notes that the deployment of Russian troops from Kharkiv and eastern Ukraine to the south of the country likely provides an opportunity for counterattacks from Ukraine.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian troops launched a counterattack in the Kharkiv region in the Balaklia region, which probably pushed the Russian troops back to the left bank of the Donetsk and Middle Balakliika rivers.

Ukrainian forces may have captured Verbivka, less than 3 km northwest of Balaklia, according to ISW, which geolocates images posted on social media.

Several Russian sources acknowledged Ukraine’s successes in Verbivka and reported that Russian forces had destroyed bridges in the eastern outskirts of Balaklia to prevent further Ukrainian advances.

However, Russian forces will be encircled, according to Russian sources cited by Rob Lee, a Russian military expert and fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies.

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