The past Wednesday became doubly symbolic for her. Ukraine, since the 31st anniversary of its independence coincided with six months from the beginning of the Russian invasion. Curfews and public gatherings have prevented Ukrainians from celebrating their state’s birthday the way they would have liked, as Zelensky’s government feared spectacular Russian strikes, believing that Vladimir Putin, despite all the setbacks in his campaign, always has ambitions deep in his heart. which go far beyond the Donbass and Kherson, reaching Kharkov and Odessa.

In the six months that have passed since the fateful February 24, the pendulum of war has swung several times. We first experienced the Russian version of “shock and awe” when an invading army penetrated a front of more than 2,000 kilometers, occupying large areas in the south, including Kherson, the capital of the province of the same name on the west bank. Dnieper, and reaching, by the end of February – beginning of March, in the suburbs of Kyiv. In those days, everyone was worried about whether Zelensky would leave the country, whether his pro-Moscow military and intelligence officers would be overthrown, and whether the Ukrainian capital would be defeated by a lightning offensive of tanks and paratroopers.

With the advent of spring, the picture changed dramatically. The Ukrainian army, which had been preparing for a long time, managed to push the invaders away from Kyiv and Kharkov, raising the morale of the population, and the still divided West came out as a united front, imposing sanctions beyond the worst calculations of the Kremlin. Another tactical and psychological blow to the attackers was the death of the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet “Moskva”.

However, in the next round, the Russians won decisively with the fall of martyred Mariupol on 17 May and the fall of the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lisitsansk in early June, which ensured Russian control of the entire Lugansk Governorate. Already, Russia has taken control of 22% of the territory and 70% of the coastline of Ukraine.

However, assumptions about the rapid advance of the Russians into neighboring Donetsk, as a result of which the entire industrial region of Donbass fell into their hands, were not confirmed. In the next two months, the situation remained mostly stagnant, with minor ups and downs and reversals on both sides, which did not change the overall picture.

Zelensky is being forced into a risky counter-offensive on the southern front as the coming winter in Europe will seriously test Western cohesion and solidarity.

With the support of more powerful weapons systems of the Americans and their allies, the Ukrainians are defending themselves on the eastern fronts of Donbass with a large expenditure of forces and equipment and seek to launch a counterattack on the southern front in order to recapture Kherson, while getting out of the rear of the enemy by attacks or sabotage strikes in the Crimea, in within 200 kilometers of the nearest Ukrainian positions or even Russian border towns such as Belgorod.

However, despite the symbolic weight of these initiatives, there are no signs that their immediate abandonment is inevitable. The most likely scenario is a long war of attrition, with artillery and trenches as protagonists, something reminiscent of World War I, a resurgence of the ambri horror familiar to many generations from the works of Remarque, Mirivilis and Celine.

Theoretically, the unstable balance on the battlefield and the mutual attrition of wars could lead to scenarios of, if not peace, then at least a truce. UN Secretary General António Guterres has tried to move in that direction, hoping that a recent deal to export Ukrainian grain and Russian agricultural products could form the basis for a ceasefire. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has moved in the same direction, offering direct talks between Putin and Zelensky in his country, with an obvious desire to garner political favor. But it all sounds like a midsummer night’s dream: Zelensky is not going to enter into negotiations without achieving predetermined tactical victories, as otherwise it would be like giving a quarter of his country to the Russians, and Putin will claim the minimum as a condition for suppression of weapons is a complete rejection of Kyiv not only from the Crimea, but also from the Donbass.

two camps

Meanwhile, time flows differently for the two camps as Volodymyr Zelenskiy has more reason to rush: Russia plans to secure its position in Kherson in a referendum it has scheduled for September, and Ukrainians fear that despite public speaking, the West is backing the money. and the weapons may not last long unless they make tangible gains on the battlefield themselves, especially after the very likely defeat of the Democrats in the November congressional elections.

All of this is pushing Zelensky towards a risky attack on Kherson. Military analysts say that this should not be thought about unless there is a 3:1 numerical superiority on the front of the conflict – today the ratio of forces is approximately 1:1. But even in the field of technology, Ukrainians, despite their recent gains, do not feel confident. “The weapons sent to us by the West are enough for us not to die, but not to win either,” Zelensky’s adviser Mykhailos Podolyak lamented this week. According to the French Le Monde, Kyiv is asking the United States for ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of 300 kilometers and F-16 fighter jets, which would mean a dangerous escalation of the Russian-American conflict.

Merciless Russian winter

General Winter was on the side of Russia against Napoleon and Hitler, and it is possible that he will again play his role in a new asymmetrical conflict with the West. Inflation and energy crisis are shaping up to be extremely difficult months for Europe, holiday days are already visible: the euro fell below 1:1 against the dollar to a 20-year low, Germany is considering gas rationing scenarios and the Liberal vice president of parliament asks it to be commissioned Nord Stream 2, while Britain is experiencing the biggest wave of strikes in decades. Extreme social events and government overthrows are likely to take place in a number of countries, putting European unity and sanctions against Russia to the test. In addition to the clash of weapons and money, war, every war is also a clash of wills. In the war in Ukraine, it is not at all clear which of the two camps will show a stronger, longer-term will.