August 24, 1991 Supreme Council Ukrainian announced that he would no longer be subject to the laws of the Soviet Union, declaring the country’s de facto independence, a decision that would be ratified by the citizens with a 90% percentage in the corresponding referendum. Thirty-one years later, Ukraine is fighting a life-and-death struggle to defend its independence, which in its own way emphasizes the calendar: the birthday of the still young Ukrainian state coincides with the completion of half a year since the beginning of the Russian invasion.

Despite the huge cost in human lives and material losses of a conflict with a theoretically superior adversary, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday that the war will not end until all Ukrainian territories currently controlled by the occupiers are liberated, including the Crimean peninsula, which has been included part of the Russian Federation in 2014.

“It all started in Crimea, everything will end in Crimea,” Zelensky said, opening the Crimean Platform international forum, which was attended by about 40 heads of state and prime ministers, almost all of them via videoconference. “If we want guarantees and security to return to the region, to Europe, to the whole world, then we need to win our fight against Russian aggression,” the Ukrainian leader added.

In his message, French President Emmanuel Macron urged the international community not to show “no weakness and a spirit of compromise” towards Russia, while Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi assured that his country would support Kyiv to the end. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson followed suit, stressing that the Russian occupation of Crimea or any other Ukrainian region would never be accepted by the international community.

The anniversary of Ukraine’s independence is overshadowed by widespread fears that “something particularly bad,” Zelensky warned, from the occupiers during today or the next day. Authorities in Kyiv and Kharkiv, Ukraine’s two largest cities, have announced a ban on traffic and mass gatherings due to fears of Russian missile or air strikes. The news caused a new wave of flight of several citizens from Kyiv, as announced yesterday by the adviser to President Zelensky, Alexei Rodyansky. In addition, the US embassy in Kyiv yesterday urged US citizens still in the country to leave “now” because of reports of impending Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and government buildings.

The war will not end unless we also liberate Crimea, Zelenskiy says, and Western leaders say their solidarity has no end.

Dugina’s murder

Fears about an escalation in Russian attacks have intensified since the murder of Darya Dugina, daughter of Russian nationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin, on the outskirts of Moscow last Saturday, in which the FSB blamed Ukraine, despite Kyiv denying involvement. In honor of Dugina, a memorial service was held in the Russian capital yesterday in the presence of representatives of all three parliamentary parties that support Vladimir Putin. On Monday, the Russian president denounced the “cruel and treacherous” explosion of Dugina’s car in front of her father and posthumously awarded the victim one of the Russian Federation’s highest honorary medals. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday that “this is a barbaric crime that cannot be forgiven” and added: “There can be no mercy for those who organized it, those who ordered it, and those who carried it out.”

Worry about lawsuits

Meanwhile, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet expressed her concern about the trials that the Russian-speaking separatist leadership is preparing to organize in Donetsk over accused prisoners of war transferred last May in Mariupol, given that there is no guarantee of a fair trial.

Trench war on two fronts

By capturing the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lisitsansk, the Russian army in early June secured control of the entire Lugansk region, one of the two regions that make up the Donbass industrial region in eastern Ukraine. This was the last strategically important event in the war. Over the next month and a half, Russia’s expectation that neighboring Donetsk would soon follow Luhansk did not materialize as the front consolidated and the conflict took on the character of a protracted war of attrition.

Symbolic attacks

Something similar is happening on the Southern Front, where the Russians made the most progress in the first weeks of the war, capturing a large tract of land, including Kherson, the only Ukrainian city west of the Dnieper that is now under Russian control. The Ukrainians have been massaging forces for several weeks now, shelling Russian positions and sometimes recapturing part of the territory, having already announced a general counteroffensive to recapture Kherson, and recently carried out very symbolic strikes on the Crimean peninsula, even 200 kilometers from the forehead line. Despite all this, the southern front is also largely frozen, and no decisive reversal is in sight on the horizon. Yesterday, the Russian military resumed shelling in Kharkiv, on the northeastern front, and in many areas of the Zaporozhye region in the south, not far from the nuclear power plant controlled by Russian troops and causing international concern. For their part, the Ukrainians blew up an administrative building in Donetsk, the capital of the region of the same name, killing three people, according to Russian-speaking separatists.

Russia is shelling Donetsk, and the Ukrainians are planning a counterattack to liberate Kherson.

In this atmosphere, no opportunities for diplomatic truce talks appear on the horizon, despite attempts by Turkey and the UN to mediate in this direction, based on a recent agreement that allowed the transshipment of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports. Speaking on Haber Global TV, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that “there are countries and NATO in the West that want the war to continue” and “tried to sabotage the grain agreement” – except, however, the latest US accusation.

For its part, the Joe Biden administration has warned Turkey not to help circumvent sanctions imposed on Russia because it will face painful consequences. The Wall Street Journal cites a letter from U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Antijemo to the American Chamber of Commerce in Turkey saying Turkish companies, especially banks, will retaliate if they do business with people from Russia under sanctions. Turkey is the only NATO member that has failed to comply with sanctions against Russia, which the Wall Street Journal believes helped turn the country into a haven for Russian capital.

cost of war

The war in Ukraine, which is now in its seventh month, has a great human, but also financial cost. Since February 24, 5,587 civilians have been killed and 7,890 injured, according to the UN, warning that the real number is much higher. Most were killed by artillery fire or rockets. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed. US intelligence agencies estimate that 15,000 Russian soldiers were killed in Ukraine, the same number as during the ten years of war in Afghanistan. 33% of Ukrainians were forced to leave their homes, and 6.6 million Ukrainian refugees found refuge throughout Europe. Ukraine has lost 22% of its territory since 2014 and the annexation of Crimea to Russia. According to international organizations, in 2022 the economy will shrink by 45%. Rebuilding the country is expected to cost at least $750 billion. The US provided $9.1 billion worth of defense aid to Ukraine, followed by the UK with $2.72 billion worth of defense equipment, and the EU provided $2.72 billion worth of defense assistance. out of 27 follow with 2.5 billion euros.

Source: REUTERS, AP.