Cold winters helped Moscow defeat Napoleon and Hitler, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is now betting that soaring energy prices and shortages this winter will convince Europe to force Ukraine to sign a truce on Russia’s terms, Reuters wrote in an analysis published on Wednesday .

That would be the only path to peace that Moscow sees, given that the authorities in Kyiv say they will not negotiate until Russia withdraws from all of Ukraine.

“It will be a difficult winter for Europeans”

• “We have time, we can wait.
• It will be a tough winter for Europeans. We could see protests and riots.
• Some European leaders may think twice before continuing to support Ukraine and believe that the time to negotiate has come,” said a source close to the Kremlin, speaking on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to speak to the media.

A second source close to the Kremlin says that Moscow has the impression that there are cracks in European unity, and that this process is expected to accelerate amid the winter difficulties.

• “It will be very difficult if (the war) drags on into autumn and winter. Therefore, there is hope that they (Ukrainians) will ask for peace,” the quoted source said.

Reuters did not immediately receive a response from the Kremlin, which denies that Russia is using energy as a political weapon.

“It is necessary for the Russian army to suffer significant tactical defeats”

Ukraine and its staunchest Western backers say they have no intention of relenting, and U.S. officials say on condition of anonymity that they see no signs of waning support for Ukraine yet.

The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, wrote on Twitter for Ukraine’s Independence Day, which is celebrated on Wednesday: “The EU has been with you in this fight from the very beginning. And we will be by your side for as long as it takes.”

With billions of dollars in US and other aid, military training and intelligence sharing with the West, and a series of attacks on key targets that have helped boost morale, Kyiv believes it has a chance to turn the situation into a theater of war.

• “For negotiations with Russia to become possible, it is necessary to change the status quo at the front in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is necessary for the Russian army to suffer significant tactical defeats,” presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told Reuters.

During the six-month war, Ukrainian forces thwarted Russian attempts to capture the capital Kyiv and the country’s second city, Kharkiv, routinely destroyed and disrupted Russian supply lines, sank the Russian Black Sea fleet flagship Moskva, and caused extensive damage to a Russian air base in Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula. , illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014.

For some time, Kyiv also talked about a major counteroffensive to return the south, although Russia did not stand aside and joined its forces in this Ukrainian region, so it is not clear whether Ukrainian intentions will materialize, writes Reuters. .

“Competition”

The geopolitical confrontation led to a record rise in energy prices. The European Union has banned Russian coal and approved a partial ban on crude oil imports from the country to punish Moscow for a “special forces operation” it launched six months ago, on February 24, against Ukraine. But Russia also struck, sharply cutting gas exports to Europe.

European governments have tried to increase resilience to energy pressures this winter by seeking alternative sources and implementing energy-saving measures, but few energy experts believe that European countries will be able to cover all their needs.

The Kremlin attributed the reduction in gas supplies to technical problems, Western sanctions and the refusal of some countries to pay in rubles. Meanwhile, record revenues from oil and gas sales continue to fill Russia’s military coffers.

• “Of course, the Kremlin is counting on us losing interest because of the midterm elections in America, because the United Kingdom is looking for a new prime minister, because Germany is worried about dying from gas, and because the river is only 15 centimeters deep. War is a material and technical test and a test of will.
• The test will be: do we, in the West, have a will above the Kremlin? I think it’s going to be a challenge,” said retired U.S. General Ben Hodges, the former commander of U.S. forces in Europe.

The first source close to the Russian government said that in any potential future peace deal, Moscow wants to “freeze” territorial acquisitions, ensure its control over the entire Donbass (eastern) Ukrainian region, and for the authorities in Kyiv to commit to benefit of military neutrality.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that Kyiv will not agree to any proposal to freeze the current front lines in order to “appease” Moscow. His adviser Mykhailo Podolyak noted that the West supplies Kyiv with enough weapons to “not fall”, but not enough to win, and added that much more support is needed.

Reuters reminds that Western powers have refused to introduce ground troops into this conflict, and at its beginning refrained from providing heavy weapons to avoid a wider war with Russia, which has the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons.

A war of attrition

American officials believe that Putin is still pursuing his original goal of occupying Kyiv, which he failed to achieve. The same American officials say they see no sign that the Russians want to de-escalate the situation and believe the war will continue.

Andriy Kortunov, head of RIAC, a foreign policy think tank close to the Russian Foreign Ministry, says neither side seems ready to concede.

“It seems that both sides believe that their positions can be strengthened over time. Realistically speaking, it is very difficult to imagine that we can reach a political agreement in the near future,” he explained.

The two armies – Ukrainian and Russian – have been engaged in a war of attrition for a long time. None of them has yet been able to register a decisive success.

Faced with what Western intelligence agencies describe as a severe shortage of combat forces after heavy casualties, Russian forces last month made only modest, hard-earned progress in eastern Ukraine.

Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst based in Poland, says Russian forces have seized the initiative in some areas of eastern Ukraine, but neither side has seen major gains because there has been no significant increase in weapons or troop numbers. :

• “Whoever can do it (have more weapons and soldiers – no), will win the war.”

The outcome of the fighting in Ukraine — from now until winter — could determine which direction the war will go, said Neil Melvin, an analyst at London-based think tank RUSI:

• “Ukraine must convince its Western supporters that it can win (the battle) and that it is not losing momentum. If they can demonstrate in this period that they will fight back against the Russians and can maintain this momentum, it will be a victory. “

But the longer the war drags on, the greater the risks of a Western split on Ukraine, as fuel, gas, electricity and food prices begin to take their toll.

“Now all economic indicators are turning negative. It will be harder to motivate people who are shivering in their apartments (to accept hardship) unless it looks like Ukraine is winning,” said Melvin, who said the pressure to reach a political deal could then increase, dividing both the EU and the military alliance. NATO.

Nuclear risks?

Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said that “at some point” the West may have to “push the Ukrainians into some pretty uncomfortable compromises” if Kyiv fails to strike, whatever it may be. He warned that a nuclear-armed Russia could escalate the conflict if faced with the prospect of a humiliating defeat:

• “If Russia decides to fight a war that it loses, if it loses badly, and if Putin falls, or (if it decides to do) some kind of nuclear show, I wouldn’t bet on them not choosing that nuclear weapon. demonstration”.

Russia has repeatedly rejected the idea of ​​using tactical nuclear weapons. Putin said last month that Moscow was “just getting started” in Ukraine and urged the West to defeat Russia on the battlefield.

Samir Puri, author of the book “Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine”, believes that Kyiv risks being forced to live with de facto separation, with up to a quarter of the territory under Russian control, if it fails to change the dynamics of the war:

“I think that Russia could accept such a situation in the long term and this division, unfortunately, is the most likely outcome in the medium term.”

Others are more optimistic.

• “I believe that the Russian logistics system is exhausted and will not improve in the near future.
• If the West, led by the US and Great Britain, continues to offer what we have said we will offer… I am optimistic that Ukraine will be able to repel the Russians behind the line on February 23rd (the day before the Russian invasion, no) as long as by the end of this year”, – believes American General Hodges. (Source: Agerpres)

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