Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at a critical Russian airfield and supply hub in Crimea on Tuesday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest assessment, saying they were “likely part of a concerted Ukrainian counteroffensive to regain control of the west bank Dnipro”.

Local reports and video footage show a series of explosions at a Russian ammunition depot and transformer station in the Dzhankoy district, as well as at an airfield near Gvardiyskyi in Crimea.

The explosions in Crimea caused serious disruptions in Russian logistics

These explosions caused both significant damage to Russian resources and serious disruptions in Russian logistics. Russian troops used Dzhankoy as a railway hub for transporting troops and equipment to occupied settlements in the south of the Zaporizhzhia region, in particular to Melitopol.

After the attack, the Russian authorities temporarily suspended passenger rail service from Russia to Crimea.

Ukrainian forces have not officially claimed responsibility for the explosions. The New York Times reported that an unnamed senior Ukrainian official attributed the bombings in the Dzhankoy district to “an elite Ukrainian military unit operating behind enemy lines,” but no Ukrainian official has publicly claimed responsibility.

The Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement calling the explosions “the result of sabotage.”

The attacks are part of a coordinated Ukrainian counteroffensive

The attack by Kyiv forces on logistical facilities in Crimea, which is a sovereign territory of Ukraine, does not violate obligations to Western partners regarding the use of Western-supplied weapons on Ukrainian territory or stated US policy regarding Ukraine’s right to use force to restore control throughout its territory, including territories captured by Russia in 2014.

There is no indication that Ukrainian forces used US-supplied weapons in the recent strikes in Crimea, and it is unlikely that they did, as the targets are well beyond the range of US-supplied systems.

Attacks on Russian positions in and around Crimea are likely part of a concerted Ukrainian counteroffensive to regain control of the west bank of the Dnieper.

Russian supply lines in Crimea directly support Russian forces in mainland Ukraine, including those in western Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s targeting of Russian land lines of communication, logistics, and support assets in Crimea is consistent with Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts that have also targeted bridges over the Dnipro River and Russian logistics elements in the occupied Kherson region.

The net result of this campaign is likely to be that Russian forces will weaken their ability to support mechanized forces on the west bank of the Dnieper River and protect them with air and artillery on the east bank against Ukrainian counterattacks.

Vladimir Putin lies by default

The Kremlin continues to try to distort the true scale of its goals in Ukraine, which are likely to be very large. ISW appreciates that Russia’s strategic goals remain unchanged: regime change in Kyiv and securing territorial control over most of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not mention territory outside Donbass when outlining the goals of Russia’s war in Ukraine on Monday. Putin concluded his previous remarks at the “Army-2022” forum on August 15 by saying that Russian and Donbas forces are “fulfilling their duty” to fight for Russia and “liberate” Donbas.

Such a limited statement of Russian goals contrasts sharply with Russia’s previously formulated military goals of “denazification” and “demilitarization” of all of Ukraine.

Moreover, Putin’s stated limited goal is incompatible with Russia’s actions to integrate the occupied parts of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions into the Russian Federation.

ISW Key Findings:

• Russian troops conducted ground attacks in the eastern direction, but were unable to advance northwest of Slovyansk and east of Siversk.
• Invasion troops are conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut area, southwest of Avdiivka and southwest of the city of Donetsk.
• Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the north and northwest of the Kherson region.
• The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated that Ukrainian troops in Nikopol are preparing to carry out provocations at the Zaporizhia NPP, which may create conditions for continued shelling of Nikopol or new provocations.
• It is reported that Chechen units are moving to the Kherson region to monitor Russian military defectors.
• Russian forces are trying to attract soldiers even to reliable and prestigious positions.

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