Tuesday’s explosion in Crimea may be more significant than meets the eye, suggesting that the Ukrainians are trying to cut off Russian supply routes to Crimea.

Military analyst Chris Owen explains on his page Twitter that a new explosion occurred near the village of Maiske, 21 kilometers east of the important railway junction Dzhankoi.

The Russians have already said it was a munitions explosion, which Owen said was evident in video footage shared by several people.

“Depending on where exactly the explosion took place, it could be of great strategic importance. The only direct railway between Russia and Crimea runs through Maiske (the nearest passenger station is in the nearby village of Azovske),” the military observer states.

“Therefore, it is possible that this explosion cut off one of the main routes to Crimea and southern Ukraine. It will be especially difficult to repair if the ammunition is scattered over a wider area,” he notes.

Owen mentions a July 29 Ukrainian HIMARS attack on an ammunition depot in the village of Brylivka on the Jankoi-Kherson axis, with the analyst suggesting at the time that the attack might force the Russians to relocate their depots and emplacements. front to get out of the range of salvo fire systems received by Kyiv from the USA.

Impact of HIMARS systems on Russian supply routes

“Dzhankoy cannot be hit by the GMLRS missiles that Ukraine is now firing with its HIMARS systems. Therefore, there could be ammunition in the “Mayske” warehouse, which, as the Russians now hoped, could not be hit by the Ukrainians,” the military analyst explains.

“As others have pointed out, this distance significantly reduces the frequency with which Russia can replenish its troops on the front line – for example, Maiske is 233 kilometers from Kherson, a 4-hour drive. Therefore, simply staying out of range of HIMARS systems imposes limitations on the Russians,” adds Owen.

Several experts and military analysts contacted by Meduza investigative journalists in turn explained that one of the solutions that the Russian armed forces could take to protect their supply lines from attacks with HIMARS systems would be to relocate warehouses and unloading centers for the front.

They also noted that the move would significantly lengthen Russian supply lines and reduce the number of daily deliveries.

There are suspicions that the explosions in Crimea were carried out by Ukrainian saboteurs

Chris Owen also says it’s entirely possible that the Maisky munitions explosion was an accident, given that Russia has already used a huge amount of munitions and is now relying on older stockpiles, which tend to be more volatile.

“Even accidents are possible, especially because the Russians rely on manual labor” to load and unload ammunition, he added.

However, a military analyst also says another explosion has been reported at a station in Jankoi, although this has not yet been independently geolocated. It could be connected to the main Simferopol-Dzhankoy-Melitopol railway, which, unlike the one passing through Maiske, is electrified.

“The fact that both happened on the same morning doesn’t seem like a coincidence,” says Owen, adding that the explosions could have been the result of coordinated actions by Ukrainian saboteurs to paralyze rail transport to Crimea.

The new explosions in Crimea came a week after the explosions at Russia’s Novofedorivka air base in the west of the peninsula, and there is now evidence that they were caused by a special unit of Ukrainian saboteurs.

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