Limited nuclear war will be enough to set off a chain of events that will lead to the call global food crisis and deadly hunger, in addition to deaths from nuclear weapons explosions themselves, scientists warn. Whereas a large-scale nuclear war, such as the US-Russian one, could result in the death of more than half of humanity.

The study estimates that a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, for example, could result in 2.5 billion starvation deaths over the next two years. In a much wider geographical and large-scale Russian-American nuclear conflict, the number of deaths from starvation could – in the worst case – exceed five billion people, that is, more than half of all mankind.

A simulation analysis published in the food science journal Nature Food, which assesses (under six possible scenarios) the consequences of a once-unthinkable nuclear war, highlights that a massive release of soot into the atmosphere will lead to food shortages and many starving people. related deaths.

The use of nuclear weapons (rockets or bombs) will cause massive fires, which will lead to the accumulation of a large amount of soot in the atmosphere, which will block solar radiation from reaching the surface of the planet, lower the temperature and thereby limit plant productivity, ultimately reducing food production. The magnitude of these impacts will depend on how large the temperature drop will be and how large the change in precipitation will be, which will depend on how much soot reaches the upper atmosphere.

Led by Lily Xia, assistant professor of atmospheric and climate sciences at Rutgers University in New Jersey, researchers modeled the impact of six atmospheric scenarios after a week of a small or large nuclear war on major crops (wheat, corn, rice, soybeans), livestock, fisheries and other food products.

Even if compensatory measures are taken, such as reducing food waste thrown into garbage and redirecting various agricultural products produced (for example, animal feed for human consumption), scientists predict that the available livestock and fish products will not be able to compensate for the shortage of agricultural products in most countries. It is predicted that any nuclear explosion producing more than 5 trillion grams of soot is likely to lead to massive food shortages in almost all countries.

The decline in agricultural production is expected to be greater in mid- and high-latitude countries, including major agricultural exporters such as the US itself and Russia. According to the worst nuclear scenario, more than 75% of the planet will starve within the next two years after a catastrophic war. Depletion of the ozone layer in the stratosphere will result in more ultraviolet solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, with not only a direct impact on human health, but also an indirect impact on global nutrition.

The researchers note that these ominous assessments of their models underline the enormous consequences of any nuclear conflict for the health of the planet and humanity, so global cooperation is the only way to avoid such a dire situation.

“The data tells us one thing: at some point we have to prevent a nuclear war,” said Rutgers University climate science professor Alan Robock. “As long as nuclear weapons exist, they can be used, and the world has come close to nuclear war several times. A ban on nuclear weapons is the only long-term solution. To date, the five-year United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons has been ratified by 66 countries, but none of the nine nuclear powers. Our research clearly shows that the time has come for these nine states to listen to science and the rest of the world and sign this agreement,” he added.

Source: RES-IPE