After the results of the conference “New Belarus”, which brought together the entire Belarusian opposition from 8 to 9 August, the leader of democratic forces Svetlana Tikhanovskaya announced the creation of the United Transitional Cabinet. It will be a “collective executive body” of democratic forces, which must “protect the sovereignty and independence of Belarus and guarantee the transition from dictatorship to democracy”.

Tikhanovskaya immediately appointed the four most important representatives, including the “Minister of War” among them. Will this measure help to overcome differences within the opposition and bring the democratic forces in Belarus closer to victory?

Who joined the United Transition Office?

As Tikhanovskaya said, all candidates for Cabinet membership will have to obtain approval from the Coordinating Council (CC). “But there is a war going on and our country is under threat of losing sovereignty. Therefore, I am nominating the first key candidates now, for a period of six months, for their later approval by the future representative body,” Tikhanovskaya said. she said, announcing the first names.

Tikhanovskaya appointed Pavel Latushko, a well-known and prominent oppositionist, former diplomat and former director of the Kupala Theater, as the Cabinet representative for the transit of power. During the protests, he first entered the presidium of the Constitutional Court and then created his own structure – the People’s Anti-Crisis Administration. “Within the Cabinet, I will be responsible for the transit issue, increasing the pressure on the Lukashenka regime, the use of legal, economic and personal resources to achieve our goal,” said Latushko.

The head of the association of security forces BYPOL Oleksandr Azarov was appointed representative for the restoration of law and order. Previously, he was head of the 3rd department of GUBOPiK and was responsible for cases related to human trafficking, and also taught at the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, held the rank of lieutenant colonel. At the conference “New Belarus” Azarov said that the creation of the Cabinet was the idea of ​​BYPOL in the last 7 months, and the organization will continue to work under the “Peramoga” plan “for the benefit of Belarusians.”

Valeriy Kovalevsky will be responsible for foreign affairs in the Cabinet, most recently he was Tikhanovskaya’s representative for international affairs and led the representation of his office in Kyiv. Prior to the August 2020 protests, he was a diplomat, worked at the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Belarusian Embassy in the United States, and was also a consultant to the World Bank. “I will handle international affairs in the Cabinet. This is one of the most developed areas of democratic forces after 2020. Much has been done, but much more needs to be done to ensure our main objective – that we return to a democratic and free Belarus,” Kovalevsky said. .

Belarusian demsils have “war minister“

However, the Cabinet’s main surprise was Airborne Forces Reserve Lieutenant Colonel, former brigade commander of Brest’s 38th Airborne Assault Brigade Valery Sakhashchik. He will be responsible for national defense and security. Sakhashchik is well known among Belarusian security forces, he is the creator of the Black Eagle paratrooper classification system. In 2020, Sakhashchik joined the protests in Brest and, after the Russian attack on Ukraine, recorded a strong video message asking Belarusian officials not to participate in the invasion of Ukraine. In addition, the Belarusian media call him the probable commander of the Belarusian Volunteer Regiment in Ukraine “Pahonia”.

At the military parade in Minsk (file photo)

The appearance in the Cabinet of the “Minister of War”, as Sakhashchik was already nicknamed, is associated with the strengthening of the power component in democratic forces and the possible formation of an alternative Belarusian army. Valery Sakhashchik himself, in a conversation with journalists after the conference “New Belarus”, noted that in fact an alternative army was already being created, but said that he considers any civil conflict a tragedy and will do everything to prevent it from happening.

“I consider a catastrophe the option that the armed forces that we will form go into some kind of military operation in Belarus to fight with the armed forces that are now in Belarus. I couldn’t do what I could. I will do everything to prevent that from happening. succeed,” said Sahashchik, but avoided giving details, lest, as he said, “it doesn’t make life easier for those who will oppose it.”

By creating the Cabinet, Tikhanovskaya competently resolved the crisis in the opposition

Commenting on the creation of the Cabinet, political analyst Alexander Klasskovsky calls this decision the Tikhanovskaya Cabinet’s response to the harsh criticism leveled at it lately. In his opinion, Tikhanovskaya competently resolved the crisis, the “passions” in the opposition will decrease for some time, since the people who entered the cabinet can be called compromise figures.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya at a Belarusian opposition conference in Vilnius on August 8

The word “government” Tikhanovskaya avoids, apparently because there is no association with the Lukashenka power system. “Not all the ‘portfolios’ have been delivered yet, but we see that it will be a compact, asymmetrical and mobile structure in terms of staff, as vacancies have only been given out for six months. And that’s also a smart move – with a high probability that there will be no protests in Belarus for the next six months, and then the “ministers” can be prosecuted: they say you wanted powers, but you didn’t do anything,” says Klaskovsky.

European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) analyst Pavel Slyunkin considers the decision to include Sakhashchik in the cabinet important. “I believe that changes in Belarus are impossible without Ukraine’s victory in the war and the subsequent destabilization of the system in Russia. Therefore, strengthening the military component in the opposition was important and inevitable. It is good that a professional military man will deal with these issues, if he really has contacts in Ukraine, this will allow to resolve technical issues, reaching higher levels of cooperation between Ukraine and Belarusian democratic forces in the military sphere.”

Will the Cabinet be able to bring victory closer to the Belarusian democratic forces?

At the same time, Slyunkin considers it unlikely that a Belarusian Liberation Army will be created anywhere, simply because any state is unlikely to agree to this. Furthermore, the army needs not only people, but also expensive weapons and equipment, and it is not entirely clear where the resources will come from. “On the other hand, if Sakhashchik manages to establish effective work and attract Belarusians into the liberation army, or at least the Kalinouski and Pahonia regiments, that could also be a result.”

Answering the question whether the creation of the Belarusian Cabinet will bring victory over the Lukashenka regime closer, Alexander Klaskovsky says that the opposition measures alone do not affect the situation in Belarus. “The main issue is to develop an effective strategy or even the effectiveness of this or that strategy, because there can be no magic recipes. So far, as we can see, no strategic decision has been taken at the Conference”, believes the analyst.

Pavel Slyunkin believes that if the Cabinet is getting closer to the goal, then this is a very small step: “It can have an informative and symbolic impact, something like a sign of hope and dynamics that different people with different views have brought together. right, but in practice, on the ground, I don’t think it will make a difference.”