Two years after the presidential elections and the beginning of the most massive protests in the country’s history, it is obvious that in the case of Belarus, not a single law of logic has worked. Lukashenka refuted claims that one cannot hold bayonets for long, that a minority cannot defeat the majority, that without great resources it is impossible to maintain power by force. On the eve of the second anniversary of the historic presidential election, DW asked three political analysts: Valery Karbalevich, Artem Shraibman and Pavel Slyunkin. How far has the country come and what are the prospects for Belarusian society?

Lukashenka defeated everyone?

“Even from his behavior, it is clear that Lukashenka does not feel like a triumphant winner,” says political analyst Artem Shraibman, who has become more radical in recent years.

Artem Shraibman believes that for Lukashenka this is a victory in terms of the power struggle, but “not a victory in terms of problem solving”. “And in terms of conflict in society, everyone is a loser,” he says.

The fact that everyone loses in the situation that Belarus finds itself in is also emphasized by European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) analyst Pavel Slyunkin: “Lukashenko will certainly leave, but if before Belarus was quite dependent on Russia, now we are in all levels simply become fundamentally dependent on it.”

Political scientist Valery Karbalevich is also sure that “Lukashenko’s victory turned into a heavy defeat for Belarus.” “The price paid by the country to keep Lukashenka in power is extremely high. Belarus has largely lost its military sovereignty, foreign policy sovereignty, has fallen under Western sanctions and ended up in a difficult economic situation, has greatly damaged its international reputation,” he said. he. explains.

Furthermore, according to Karbalevich, Lukashenka’s momentary political victory turned into a heavy historic defeat for him. If until 2020 it was possible to discuss the image in which Lukashenka would be in the history of Belarus, now the discussions are over. “He will go down in history as a negative character,” says Karbalevich.

How much longer will this last?

Lukashenka has been in power in Belarus for 28 years. And none of the political analysts today are ready for a prediction of how soon the situation in the country could change. “The imbalances that have become visible in 2020 are not only not eliminated, they are heated even more. It will be classic steam containment as long as the lid holds. And so this could happen as likely as a few months out of six months or a year and in five years”, explains Artem Shraibman.

Lukashenka bet on strength

In his opinion, the war in Ukraine is now approaching the historic moment in Belarus, “because it undermines the economic and military resources of the main donor of this regime – Russia”.

Pavel Slyunkin also talks about Ukraine’s important role. “All the conditions that are now developing create a very unfavorable situation and deprive hope for the future,” he said. “With one exception – if Ukraine doesn’t win and Russia doesn’t weaken.”

Can Lukashenka return everything to how it was before?

“Lukashenko has no narratives for the future, no plans, no programs,” recalls Valery Karbalevich. “The only thing that worries him is power. The saddest thing is that he doesn’t hide it, he shows it defiantly. “The main thing is not to give power to scoundrels” – so he formulates his creed. He relies on brute force, believes it replaces everything: both the future and some ideas about where the country is going.”

Valery Karballevich

According to the political scientist, the events of 2020 greatly influenced all processes in and around Belarus. “The country can no longer be different, it will not go back to what it was before 2020 – neither society nor the authorities can get there. It is impossible to control society using the methods that were used before 2020. The regime must turn into totalitarian, which is what we are seeing today,” he says.

Artem Shraibman is confident that Belarusians will remember the 2020 experience for at least an entire generation. “For a long time in Belarusian politics after Lukashenka, references to him will be toxic to any politician. Everyone will want to distance themselves from what we saw in 2020, 2021, 2022 – no one wants to experience that trauma. autocracy (especially the autocracy that sometimes does good things like the Hi-Tech Park) is bad and unsustainable. Now it’s not like that anymore. Now there’s a vaccine.”

What did 2020 teach?

Many trends that we consider immutable, well-established, can change very quickly and unpredictably, believes Artem Shraibman. He recalls how many expected peaceful elections from 2020 onwards, after – many believed the protests were endless, and then – no one believed that Russia could attack Ukraine.

“This lesson is that no current reality, no matter how stable and concrete it may seem, is also not an eternal trend. We are now witnessing a total tightening of the screws, depression within the protest electorate and a kind of triumphant march of the repressive apparatus on all remaining freedom islands in Belarus “But this trend will break. These years have taught us that it is no longer possible to think linearly”, says the analyst.

Political scientist Valery Karbalevich adds: “There is hope that we live in a time when historical processes accelerated the movement, especially with the outbreak of the Russian war in Ukraine. This gives all processes in the world – international, geopolitical – a new dynamic, and this will influence the internal political processes of our region and beyond.”