In the battle for Ukraine, a second front opened: the energy war in Europe. There is no mystery in Vladimir Putin’s strategy.

He also laid it out at an economic conference in St. Petersburg in June: high energy prices that create difficulties that radiate across the European economy, that will create social instability, which means people will vote with empty wallets. In turn, this will bring populist parties to power, which will replace the “elites” in Europe, as Putin put it, writes The Wall Street Journall, cited by Rador.

The ultimate goal is for governments that do not support Ukraine to come to power in Europe, thus breaking the Western coalition. The strategy has already started working.

Last month, the right-wing party quit Italy’s ruling coalition, citing the “terrible choice” facing Italian families: “to pay the electricity bill or buy food.” This forced the resignation of Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who came to Kyiv in June to confirm Italy’s support for Ukraine.

This energy war works with current prices, but also with a countdown to winter. Will Europe have enough gas to fill its storage and meet the need for more heating that comes with the cold weather?

In 2021, Russia provided 38% of the total gas consumption in the EU. These trade relations are based on the fact that Russia (and before it the USSR) has proven itself as a reliable supplier of gas. Whatever happens politically, the flow of gas from the pipelines will not be affected; it is “strictly business”.

Not from now on. Even before the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin began to reduce supplies. He recently cut the flow through the 750-mile Nord Stream pipeline, which directly connects Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. Before its opening in 2011, the EU hailed it as a “priority energy project”. But those were different times.

Today, citing technical problems, Russia cut the flow through Nord Stream to 20% of normal levels, further increasing prices. In total, at the time of writing, Russia has reduced pipeline supplies by more than 70%. As a result, gas prices for the European consumer are 7-8 times higher than they would normally be, which is equivalent to a price of $380 per barrel of oil.

To offset the shortfall, Europe’s high prices act as a magnet, attracting imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) that would normally go elsewhere in the world. U.S. LNG exports typically go to Asia, but this year about two-thirds went to Europe.

Europe is trying to find new sources. Germany is rapidly building capacity by importing LNG, something it has never done before. The EU signed a memorandum with Israel and Egypt on the supply of gas from newly discovered reserves in the eastern Mediterranean.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz flew to Senegal to promote LNG production there; the president of Italy did the same in Mozambique. A number of contracts for the supply of LNG from the USA have been signed.

But none of these projects will be able to make an impact this winter — or even next. Meanwhile, Germany is decommissioning coal-fired power plants that were slated to be decommissioned to save gas for power generation. Scholz, by contrast, said this week that “it would make sense” to keep Germany’s last three nuclear power plants operating rather than shut them down.

Most likely, the situation will worsen in the coming months. Russia will find new reasons to reduce supplies. It may even completely cut off supplies via Nord Stream and the Ukrainian pipeline system, which also transports Russian gas to Europe and which, oddly enough, continues to operate despite the war.

Even Russian LNG exports may be interrupted. An economic recovery in China, if it lifts pandemic lockdowns, or a particularly cold winter in Asia could trigger a scramble for LNG supplies with Europe, further pushing up prices.

The only meaningful solution left for Europe is to reduce demand. The EU recently called for a 15% cut in gas consumption, but not all member states agreed, and then there is the question of implementation.

Will German industry, which is already struggling with high prices, downsize, leading to higher unemployment? Or will the reduction in demand be caused by the very high prices and a possible recession that is already looming? Meanwhile, economic problems will put pressure on European politics.

Winter gas reserves in Europe are now 67% secured. And the Kremlin wants them to be at approximately this level. This energy war will be influenced by more than just politics.

As with Napoleon’s invasion of Russia in 1812 and Germany’s invasion of the USSR during World War II, the outcome will depend on how cold the weather is. This is something that neither Putin nor European leaders can control. But they can all agree on one thing: winter is coming.

The Wall Street Journal (acquisition of Rador)