A burning issue for U.S. officials has been the management of China’s strategy, which will involve gradually increasing pressure on Taiwan with the physical and digital blockade of the island nation. US government officials say a full embargo on Taiwan is doubtful, in part because of the damage it would do to the Chinese economy.

However, Chinese high schools can become a source of armed confrontation between USA as well as China, especially if aircraft of two states participate in air battles. 20 years ago, a Chinese fighter jet collided mid-air with an American spy plane, sparking diplomatic tensions.

“This scenario is especially dangerous. If military exercises escalate into a blockade of the island, who should react first? Taiwanese forces? United States? It’s not clear,” says Bonnie Lynn, who headed the Pentagon’s Islands office before moving to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, where she leads the China project. The scenario of the exercise turning into a blockade is one regularly tested in Washington as US officials try to map out their alternatives before such a crisis erupts. However, nothing can reproduce a real conflict. In this case, Biden will be asked to draw a fine line between not giving in to the Chinese and preventing escalation.

Dangerous scenarios of confrontation between Washington and Beijing if Chinese exercises develop into a blockade of Taiwan.

F-16 Dialogue

The situation is complicated by the ongoing debate about how to help Taiwan become such a well-defended country that China cannot invade its territory. While the debate over selling the F-16 to Taiwan (its fleet should reach 200 by 2026) continues, there is growing concern that Taiwan is buying the wrong equipment and should learn some lessons from Ukraine’s experience.

The discussion is not new. Two years ago, David F. Helvey, a senior Department of Defense official, calculated that as China’s ability to choke the island strengthens, Taiwan itself could, through prudent investment, send a clear signal to Beijing that society and its military are dedicated to defense of the island. But he warned that the amount available to the Taiwanese government to acquire new defense technology was not enough for effective defense. The result has been constant pressure from Washington, which has urged Taiwan’s leaders to invest less in expensive F-16s and more in “more small things.” A recipe that Helvey says helped Ukraine resist Russian forces. The list includes cruise missiles, naval mines, small vehicles and tanks. President Tsai has expressed her support for this “asymmetric” strategy and has increased the defense budget in recent years to purchase small mobile weapons recommended by the US.