The war in Ukraine and possibly the start of a new war in Syria will be the focus of the new meeting they will have today. in Sochi President of Russia Vladimir Putinand its Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Three weeks after their meeting in Tehran, the Turkish head of state will again meet with his Russian counterpart in a Black Sea resort following Ankara’s recent diplomatic initiative that helped reach an international agreement to resume Ukrainian grain exports via the Bosphorus.

Last month in the Iranian capital, the Russian president explicitly warned against any new Turkish military operation in Syria to push back the Kurdish YPG, which Ankara considers the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Some analysts say the recurring tensions are part of a “competitive partnership” that has defined the two leaders’ relationship over the past two decades.

“Russia’s war against Ukraine has restored the image Turkey wants to create for itself as a key geopolitical player and has made Erdogan more visible again,” Asli Aydindasbas, a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations, recently noted.

According to her, “most Turks support the position of their country”, which is “almost neutrality between East and West.”

Ceasefire negotiations

Turkey’s systematic efforts, despite being a member of NATO, to remain neutral towards Moscow on the issue of Ukraine have begun to bear fruit.

After many months of efforts, Moscow and Kyiv signed an agreement in Istanbul under the auspices of the UN. The first shipment of corn shipped from Odessa since the war broke out on Feb. 24 has arrived in Lebanon and more will follow, easing some fears of a global food crisis.

Turkey now wants to see the start of ceasefire talks between the Russian president and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, possibly in Istanbul.

“We discussed whether the grain agreement could be an opportunity (negotiate) for a lasting ceasefire,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said yesterday after meeting with his Russian counterpart in Asia, Sergey Lavrov.

But efforts are complicated by Ankara’s repeated threats to launch a full-scale military operation in Syria, where Russian and Turkish interests clash.

Moscow is the main protege of President Bashar al-Assad, supporting him in the fight against organizations, at least partially supported by Turkey.

Today, Mr. Erdogan insists he wants the Turkish army to cross the border again and set up a security zone in areas where Syrian and Russian troops are already patrolling to push back Kurdish armed groups he calls “terrorists.”

“Perhaps (today’s) meeting will raise the issue of a possible invasion of Syria, for which Turkey has not received a green light from either Russia or Iran,” commented Istanbul-based university international relations expert Soli Ozel Has. Russia will ask for something “in return”, he took into account.

game of patience

According to some Turkish media, Vladimir Putin would very much like to have unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Ankara has delivered several heavily armed Bayraktar-TB2s to Ukraine, which Western military analysts say have proven effective against Russian tanks.

A Russian delegation traveled to Iran to discuss a possible purchase of hundreds of UAVs, according to US officials. Mr. Erdogan himself referred, after his return from Tehran, to Mr. Putin’s request to buy such aircraft.

But the statement was later edited by a representative of the Turkish government, who assured that the head of state was just joking.

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov instead seemed to fuel the scenario, assuring that “military-technical cooperation is always on the agenda of the two countries.”

There is another potential source of tension between the two presidents, who are known for being late. In Tehran, Erdogan was forced to be patient, he waited for Vladimir Putin for about 50 seconds, in front of the camera of the official Turkish news agency: his face was enlarged, in which tension was visible.

For some, this was a payback – in 2020, the Turkish president framed the occupier of the Kremlin for almost two minutes.

with information from AFP, APE-MPE