The Belarusian opposition is preparing for a major conference called “New Belarus”, which will be held on the anniversary of the beginning of the protests in Belarus – from August 8 to 9 in Vilnius. Many hopes are pinned on him in opposition circles – all representatives of the democratic movement must meet at the conference and, at the very least, designate a future strategy for action.

However, since the beginning of the preparation of the event, it has been accompanied by scandals and a rather negative information history – recently, criticism of the Office of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who is the main organizer of the conference, has increased significantly. What will be discussed at the main event of the Belarusian democratic forces and what is the chance that the opposition will be able to make important decisions without fighting?

Announcement amid strong criticism of Tikhanovskaya

The fact that the Congress of Belarusians (the event was originally called that) will be held from August 8 to 9, announced Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in mid-July, responding to strong criticisms that were leveled in her office at the II Forum of Democratic Forces, organized by former HTP boss Valery Tsepkalo. But the very idea of ​​the congress was discussed by the head of the NAU, Pavel Latushko, with Tikhanovskaya in early July.

After the announcement, the office began preparations for the event and began sending out personal invitations to political activists, civil society representatives, experts and journalists (a DW correspondent also received an invitation. – Ed.). But this alignment did not please everyone, as it was initially assumed that congressional delegates would vote on important decisions – and for that they should be democratically elected, not just invited.

Along with Tsepkala, who continues to criticize Tikhanovskaya even though he accepted the invitation to the event, Pavel Latushko made comments at this stage. He presented his principles according to which the congress should be held: at least 1,000 delegates must be elected, the congress agenda is determined by roll call, and decisions are taken by majority. Among the topics to be discussed, Latushko highlighted the creation of a national liberation movement and the formation of a national authority in Belarus (Tsikhanouskaya announced this on February 24, but there were no details. – Ed.).

What is proposed to be discussed in “New Belarus”?

As a result, on July 22, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya invited everyone to register for the event on her social networks. According to her, it is organized jointly with the Coordinating Council, the BYPOL initiative, NAU, civic initiatives, entrepreneurs and experts. “Let’s talk openly with each other, show the results of our work, talk about real plans,” Tikhanovskaya said. It is curious that now the congress of oppositionists has become known as the “New Belarus Conference” – the office did not explain why the name was changed.

The conference organizing committee published the event’s program. On the first day, participants are invited to discuss what the strategic priorities of the activity should be, what the transition period should be, how to save the country from the economic crisis and how to reorganize democratic forces. And on the second day, opponents must discuss private business, digital politics and civil society. As you can see, there is no place to vote on a new strategy, an alternative cabinet, or other major program decisions.

However, the Belarusian public could not help but criticize the program either. Some were outraged that only 5 minutes were allocated in the program for the presentation of the results of the democratic movement over two years (this was the case with the first version of the program, now it is 10 minutes. – Red.), as well as a large number of coffee breaks.

The main expectation is that the opposition does not fight

Assessing the prospects for the conference, Pavel Slyunkin, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), notes from the outset that the conference itself was forced: “There were calls to do something similar before, but only after the Tsepkalo forum and the attack of the media from all flanks, the office announced the conference.” And when asked what to expect from the event, he wryly notes that he doesn’t expect anything, “except another bit of news about disputes between the opposition.”

“There will be different structures and personalities at the conference, and based on what they are saying publicly, their positions are very different. Some of the critics may find common language with the office, but most are also in different positions to resolve them.” Therefore, as Slyunkin says, the main expectation of the conference is that democratic forces can talk calmly, find mutual understanding and a form of respectful communication with each other.

Shouldn’t we expect fateful decisions at the conference?

Director of the Institute “Political Sphere” Andrei Kazakevich, in turn, positively evaluates the idea of ​​the conference as a whole. “The minimum program for such a conference is the designation of the positions of the different political forces. It is necessary that the arguments of these positions are presented, the perspectives of rapprochement are outlined and common approaches are developed on how to respond to what is happening in the country and in the region. You shouldn’t expect fateful decisions at the forum, but under a good set of circumstances, this could be the first step towards consolidating democratic forces,” Kazakevich said.

As an argument for the thesis that important decisions will not be taken at the conference, the two experts draw attention to the situation with the renaming of the event from congress to conference. In their opinion, this indicates that the format of the conference is one of dialogue, since in order to make important decisions or vote, a democratic procedure for electing delegates is necessary.

Discussing whether the creation of an alternative governing body will be discussed at the conference, Kazakevich does not exclude that general framework agreements could be reached: “But no more. Not yet completed. We hear that there is a lot of criticism, but few concrete proposals to assess the potential of those forces that take a critical position in relation to the office.”