Less than 24 hours: That’s how long US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan lasted. As much as a “spark” in the course of history, which will yet show whether it will lead to a wider fire in the disputed waters of the Chinese seas.

In a sense, the timing of the visit could not have been worse. OUR Nicholas Burns, the US ambassador to China, warned last June that Sino-US diplomatic relations have now fallen to their lowest level in 50 years. “It couldn’t get any worse,” writes Thomas Friedman in The New York Times. And this is for a number of reasons:

The China of 2022 is not the China of 1997. This is not the country that saw the Republican then, 25 years ago. Newt Gingrich visit Taiwan as Speaker of the US House of Representatives.

In the meantime, a lot has happened: Hong Kong returned to Chinese control in 1997, a few months after Gingrich’s visit to Taiwan, and China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 before becoming a giant not only financially but also militarily.

Chinese gigantization course

Now the Chinese navy is (numerically) the largest in the world, that is, with the largest number of ships, at the same time, Beijing has become much more assertive in areas close to the Chinese mainland borders: around the Spratly Islands, Scarborough Reef and Senkaku/Diaggio Islands.

Back in 1997, “Beijing had plenty of reasons not to start a fight” with the US over Taiwan, writes Cathy Stollard of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in the New Statesman.

The current situation, however, cannot be compared to any previous one… with the war in Ukraine, the conflict has been going on for six months, hardline nationalist Xi Jinping has again taken the place of Jiang Zemin in Beijing, and Russia is looking for reasons to condemn American intervention in the conflict. international arena.

Objections that were not heard

Joe Biden himself and his staff (Anthony Blinken, Jake Sullivan), as well as the US military, took a position in advance against a possible visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. For its part, Beijing also urged the American side not to take such steps, warning of retaliation.

The visit, however, came about for reasons related to Pelosi herself, now 82 (who will most likely not be the speaker of the US House of Representatives after the November midterm congressional elections) and her political legacy.

On the altar of personal ambition

“By visiting Taiwan, Pelosi ended a 30-year course of conflict with China,” writes Carl Hals in the New York Times, looking back at the harsh criticism that the current speaker of the US House of Representatives has leveled against Beijing in the past. three decades in Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang and, obviously, Taiwan.

On the other hand, of course, some argue that if the (Democratic) White House, State Department, and US military really didn’t want this (Democratic) Pelosi trip to Taiwan to happen, it wouldn’t have happened. However, opinions differ on this point.

“The failure of the Democratic President to prevent the Democratic Speaker of the House from participating in diplomatic maneuvers that the President’s entire national security team deemed unwise shows the degree of dysfunction of the (American) political system,” writes Thomas Friedman in the New York Times. once.

With an eye on Ukraine

Be that as it may, Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan took place and now everyone is turning to “after” the next day in Sino-US relations, but with an eye not only to Asia, but also to … Ukraine, where it is possible for China to become more actively involved in the interests of Russian troops could add fuel to the fire, exacerbating a crisis with already wide-ranging international repercussions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself would hasten today to remind Beijing of the importance of neutrality, which he has so far demonstrated to the Ukrainian side, and on the other hand, at about the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry would have tried to aggravate Sino-American relations. tension across Taiwan.

However, an opinion piece published a few hours ago by the Washington Post editors is also an interesting read. According to him, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was an unwise move that caused “damage”, and now efforts should be made to “bring it under control.”

An interesting detail: just a few hours earlier, the Washington Post published an article by Pelosi herself, through which the 82-year-old woman tried to justify her decision to move to Taipei …

Nancy Pelosi left Taipei on Wednesday before being there for 24 hours, but the effects of this visit will be felt for days, maybe even months, Gzero analysts write for their part, and now the ball has been moved to the stadium in Beijing. whose mood is expected to be the judge of the level of tension.

“Chinese officials warned the Speaker of the US House of Representatives not to travel to Taiwan. Now that she is gone, they will want to show that their threats were not empty,” writes Kate Stallard in the New Statesman.

Sanctions and military universities

Events already confirm this. In just a few hours, Beijing began imposing new trade and economic sanctions against Taiwan, restricting exports and imports from the self-governing island. It is worth noting that the People’s Republic of China continues to be Taiwan’s largest trading partner despite their rivalry.

At the same time, well before dawn on Wednesday, Beijing also announced a series of live-fire Chinese military high schools expected to start on Thursday (August 4) noon and end next Sunday (August 7) ​​noon. . . .

Looking at the exact location of these exercises on the map, one can understand that we are talking about a number of high schools that literally surround the island of Taiwan, violating in many places what Taipei calls its territorial waters in the Pacific Ocean. as Taiwan Air Defense Zone (Air Defense Identification Zone).

The Chinese military is set to take the unprecedented step of withdrawing 10 miles off the coast of Taiwan in the coming days, according to the New York Times, with a live-fire military exercise.

Thus, Beijing is sending a clear signal that it is questioning any separatist tendencies, reminding that it views Taiwan as part of Chinese territory that may now be self-governing, but will formally return to its own control at some point in the future. It should be noted that, according to Chinese officials, no part of the Taiwan Strait can be considered international waters anymore.

However, the Chinese side thereby directs a “warning shot” towards the United States, which does not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, theoretically following the “one China” policy, but sells weapons systems to Taipei…

U.S. next steps in doubt

What will the Americans, who maintain aircraft carriers in the Pacific and have conducted freedom of navigation operations in the Taiwan Strait in the recent past, do if the Chinese arrive in the coming days in close proximity to the Taiwan coast?

Under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the Americans were required to support Taipei but not directly intervene in any conflicts. Such a scenario, however, would remind… Ukraine.

The crisis of the period 1995-1996

The last time tension with military shots in the Taiwan Strait was in 1995-1996, after the visit/speech of then Taiwanese President Lee Teng Hui at Cornell University in the United States.

At the time, the Chinese fired live rounds, and the Americans responded by crossing aircraft carriers.

Now, some 26 years later, Beijing’s announced military schools are geographically much closer to the island of Taiwan than they were in 1995-1996, greatly increasing the level of difficulty for Taipei and Washington.

Recall that the crisis of the 1990s lasted eight months and two days.

It is also noted that the Chinese Communist Party is moving in parallel with the next 20th anniversary. conference next November, a conference that is also expected to be accompanied by Xi Jinping’s historic third five-year re-election to power.

Xi himself now has, after Pelosi’s visit, the opportunity he may have been looking for to show military might around Taiwan.

However, it will be decisive for everyone who is directly and indirectly involved, of course, that this “show” does not get out of hand …