In the DW column “Belarus. Perspectives”, Alexander Fridman tells how the RFA redeemed political prisoners from the GDR and discusses whether such an agreement with Alexander Lukashenko is possible today. You can discuss his point of view and share your view of the situation on the Telegram channel “DW Belarus”.

At the end of July, 1,264 people were recognized as political prisoners in Belarus. The wheel of repression continues to work, the number of political prisoners is increasing and their chances of early release looks ghostly: both the Belarusian democratic movement and Western countries lack effective mechanisms to put pressure on the Lukashenka regime, and the Minsk official’s complicity in the Russian war against Ukraine and the harsh sanctions of the United States, Britain and the EU practically exclude the possibility of a constructive dialogue between the parties.

In such a desperate situation, heated discussions were sparked by the idea of ​​opposition politician Valery Tsepkala, who proposed to buy political prisoners from Lukashenka, mainly women.

Can Lukashenka, in principle, agree to such an agreement? Quite! Although Belarus’ leadership never acknowledged the presence of political prisoners in the country, Lukashenka, in the past, in relations with the West, voluntarily agreed to the principle of “release of political prisoners in exchange for sanctions relief”.

What will the “sale” of political prisoners give the regime?

In the current situation, when the economic situation is deteriorating, sanctions against Belarus are unprecedentedly harsh and the regime itself urgently needs additional sources of funding, political prisoners are a lucrative asset, which, moreover, can always be replenished through repression.

The Belarusian authorities have shown a certain flexibility, creativity and readiness for non-trivial solutions in the case of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. A frantic propaganda campaign against these countries, which are even accused of preparing a military invasion of Belarus, did not prevent Lukashenka from introducing a temporary visa-free regime for citizens of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, the aim of which is to guarantee the influx of additional funds for the Belarusian economy.

Maria Kolesnikova sentenced to 11 years

“Selling” grassroots protesters in 2020 and political activists can also generate additional funds without causing serious political damage to the regime. But official Minsk is unlikely to go to the “sale” of 2020 iconic figures like Sergei Tikhanovsky and his associates, Viktor Babariko or Maria Kolesnikova: Lukashenka has a special score with them, especially Tikhanovsky.

Is the West ready to pay?

Who should pay Lukashenka for political prisoners? Tsepkalo suggests the funds that the EU, the UK and the US allocate to support the Belarusian democracy movement and, first and foremost, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s office in Vilnius. But is the West willing to pay for Belarus’ political prisoners? Official Minsk is characterized by cruelty, cynicism and pragmatism, and is not bound by moral principles and obligations. The situation is different in the West. In Washington, London and Brussels, moreover, they regularly condemn the massacre of dissidents in Belarus and repeat the demand for the release of political prisoners.

But at the same time, it must be emphasized that the most severe sanctions against Belarus were not imposed because of the human rights situation, but after the landing of the Ryanair plane with Roman Protasevich on board, the migration crisis inspired by the Lukashenka on the borders of the EU and in the context of complicity in Russia’s war against Ukraine. In other words: in those cases where Lukashenka entered the international arena and openly threatened the interests of Europe and the United States.

In this sense, it is difficult to imagine that Western countries, for humanitarian reasons, make concessions to Lukashenka and finance a possible agreement with the official Minsk. At the end of 2021, the EU did not agree to this deal: when migrants from Iraq and other countries tried to invade the Polish-Belarusian border, voices of advocates of a humanitarian solution were heard in the European Union, offering to negotiate with Lukashenka and take the people from the border. As a result, the agreement did not happen, the humanitarian aspects were left out, and the adventure of the Belarusian regime as a whole failed.

Germany and East Germany: There were two sides to win

As for Valery Tsepkalo’s proposal, the call to redeem women is both original and contradictory, but the idea itself is not new: there are plenty of controversial examples of “trafficking” in people in Europe’s post-war history. Thus, communist Romania actively marketed its citizens of German and Jewish origin, for the emigration for which the FRG, the US and Israel paid to Bucharest. The trade in political prisoners acquired a special role in the relations between the GDR and the GDR.

So Bonn bought 33,775 people from East Berlin from 1963 to 1989, paying nearly 3.5 billion West German marks in the process. The starting price of 40,000 marks for one person’s freedom reached almost 96,000 in the late 1970s. Political commerce became a very profitable business for the GDR and was coordinated by the Stasi State security agencies. It should be noted that the RFA sought to exclude the transfer of money that could end up in the pockets of GDR party and state officials. In the beginning, things and even food were supplied to the GDR, and later industrial goods, oil, diamonds and other valuables. Lists of citizens to be released were negotiated by both sides.

Moral inconsistency of transactions

This case must be considered in the context of the relations between the two German states in the Cold War era: if Bonn received political trump cards and could emphasize its moral superiority and loyalty to humanitarian principles, then East Berlin obtained additional funds for its economy. In the end, both sides won.

The section “Belarus. Perspectives” gives Belarusians the opportunity to express their opinion on the DW website

And political prisoners? The sale brought considerable revenue to East Berlin and became an additional motivating factor for the GDR authorities to continue the crackdowns. Every year, thousands of new political prisoners appeared in the country. What’s more, as a result of the transactions between the RFA and the GDR, almost 34,000 people were on the run.

The example of the GDR demonstrates the moral inconsistency of agreements with dictatorial regimes. Such agreements, on the one hand, finance the regime, stabilize it and even encourage it to continue the repressions and, on the other hand, they bring freedom to certain people. A similar dilemma is relevant for Belarus in 2022.

Author: Alexander Friedman, historian, associate member of the Humboldt University of Berlin.

The commentary expresses the author’s personal opinion. It may not agree with the opinion of the editors and Deutsche Welle as a whole.