Ukrainian drones, which are increasingly able to evade Moscow’s jamming and air defenses, have attacked several Russian oil facilities in recent weeks in an attempt to reduce oil refining capacity and slow the Kremlin’s war machine, Reuters, CNN and Foreign Policy write.

On Tuesday, an unmanned aerial vehicle struck the main unit of Russia’s Taneko refinery, one of the country’s largest, according to an analysis of images showing the strike, contradicting Moscow’s claims that the attack on the refinery, located more than 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine, was rejected.

Reuters also wrote that the damage suffered by the refinery was not critical, and the state agency RIA said that the fire that broke out at the site was extinguished after 20 minutes.

Shortly thereafter, Kyiv announced the strike in Nizhnyokamsk (Republic of Tatarstan), which it said was the result of a joint operation by the Security Service (SBU) and the Military Intelligence Service (MIS).

It wasn’t a surprise. In recent weeks, Kyiv has repeatedly struck Russian oil refineries, some of which are located hundreds of kilometers from Ukraine’s borders, as part of a campaign aimed at causing economic damage and as much as possible hampering the logistics of the war that Moscow is waging.

A Ukrainian intelligence source said that Kyiv drones also hit a Russian factory that produces Shahed long-range attack drones, causing “significant damage.”

According to Ukrainian sources cited by CNN, Ukrainian attacks in recent weeks have typically been carried out using long-range drones, some of which are equipped with an early form of artificial intelligence to help them navigate and avoid Russian obstacles.

The first effects are visible. Russia has admitted that some of its oil refineries are not working and has temporarily banned gasoline exports to avoid a spike in domestic fuel prices.

According to Reuters estimates, as of the end of March, about 14 percent of Russia’s primary oil refining facilities were affected by Ukrainian drone strikes.

On Monday, Bloomberg reported that Russia plans to cut diesel exports from Black and Baltic Sea ports to the lowest level in five months.

And on Tuesday, the Russian ruble depreciated against the dollar under the influence of a reduction in the supply of currency by exporters, as well as the reaction of the markets to the spectacular attack in Nizhnekams, writes Reuters.

More and more powerful drones

The use of drones is by no means a new strategy for Ukraine, but Kyiv’s skills in this regard have grown significantly recently, giving it the ability to strike deep into Russian territory.

It’s unclear which drones were used in Tuesday’s attack, but Ukrainian sources told CNN that a successful strike usually requires an aircraft capable of avoiding Russian jamming systems. And Ukrainian drones, sources say, have acquired these capabilities.

“Accuracy in conditions of stagnation is ensured thanks to the use of artificial intelligence. Each drone has a computer with data received from the satellite and from the ground,” the quoted source explained. “The flights are pre-coordinated with our allies and the planes are following a flight plan so that we can hit targets with an accuracy of a few meters,” the source added to the US TV channel.

Such accuracy, according to experts, is possible thanks to the drone’s sensors.

“They have this capability that is a form of artificial intelligence,” explained Noah Sylvia, an analyst at the Royal Joint Services Institute, a British think tank, who said the drone first receives data about the geographic location of where it is going. .orients itself, being able to determine where it is without communication with satellites.

Chris Lincoln-Jones, a former British military officer and anti-drone and artificial intelligence expert, also explained to CNN that the level of “intelligence” is still very low.

“This level of autonomy has never been seen before in drones, but we are still in the early stages of the potential of this technology,” he noted.

Over the past few weeks, Reuters has counted attacks on nine Russian oil refineries: “Taneko” – in Nizhnyokamsk, Kuibyshevsky – near Samara, Ryazansky – south of Moscow, Novoshachtinsky – in the Rostov region, Norsi – near Nizhny Novgorod, Kirishsky – in Leningrad Region, Syzran – near Samara, Slavyansk – in the Krasnodar Territory and Kaluga – south of Moscow.

Some of them, but not all, were forced to partially suspend their activities or reduce production.

Two problems for Moscow

Moscow receives about 40% of the revenues that come to the federal budget from the export of crude oil and refined products (and this share is even higher in Russian ruble terms), making this sector an important part of the Kremlin’s potential to increase defense spending, restore its destroyed army and purchase a huge amount of foreign-made weapons for use against Ukraine.

Russian refineries also produce millions of barrels per day of products such as diesel and jet fuel, which are vital to the military.

Although the consequences of the Ukrainian attacks differed from refinery to refinery, the drone strikes pose two big problems for Moscow.

First, the continuation of attacks will further strain Russia’s limited air defense, which Moscow will be forced to deploy in ever-larger areas, writes Foreign Policy.

Second, after years of Western sanctions, repairs to more advanced refinery components may be much more difficult than under normal circumstances, which could affect Russia’s ability to produce high-value petroleum products such as high-octane fuel.

Experts note that, for example, Ukraine did not hit fuel storage facilities, but distillation plants, where crude oil is processed and converted into fuel or other derivatives.

The strikes on these objects cause even more damage, and their repair requires Western technologies, which are not easy for Russia to acquire, observers say.

At least for the moment, given that the situation on the eastern front in Ukraine is difficult, Kyiv declares that it is satisfied.

“These weeks have demonstrated to many that the Russian military machine has vulnerabilities that we can hit with our weapons,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this month, referring to drone attacks on oil refineries.

“Now Ukraine will always have striking power in the sky,” he added.

The US is concerned, but Ukraine says the strikes will continue

In an interview with the Washington Post on March 29, President Zelensky stated that attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are legal.

The strikes are a response to Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure and are in line with Ukraine’s military goals, the Ukrainian leader said.

The statement was made after information appeared in the mass media that the US would ask Ukraine to stop attacking the facilities of the Russian oil industry.

Zelenskyi’s adviser Mykhailo Podolyak denied this information, saying that Kyiv did not receive such calls from Washington.

The US fears, the media assumed, were related to the rise in oil prices.

Although they did not mention energy prices, Washington officials emphasized that they are actively preventing Ukraine from striking these refineries. “We have long said that we do not encourage or support attacks inside Russia,” a US official told CNN.

More worrying, say experts, is that Ukraine will not stop at the refinery. Some of Russia’s largest oil ports, responsible for about two-thirds of crude oil and oil product exports, according to RBC, are within range of Ukrainian drones.

Ukrainian officials said they understood US concerns, but that the strikes would continue.

“It is clear that we should reduce these revenues to the budget as much as possible and automatically cut off oxygen to Mr. Putler,” said SBU head Vasyl Malyuk, using a combination of the names Putin and Hitler.

“So we will work while gas station country burns,” he added.

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