The big illusion of the too big PSD-PNL alliance is that it can turn the 2024 election year into a gallop of health. They believe that everyone will be watching them (admiringly or not) as they win all four elections in a row. More precisely: this opinion about the inevitability of PSD-PNL victory will defeat political opponents even before the start of election battles.

It is possible that this calculation will turn out to be correct. But it is much more risky than it seems. The success of the alliance in power will depend on the ability of the leaders of these parties to convey the message of the winner, appear confident and, in the first stage, convey to the core of their electorate the confidence of victory. The signs of these last weeks tell us exactly the opposite: instead of certainty, we are bombarded with contradictory discourses. At the level of decisions on candidates for Bucharest, general or not, many meetings were prepared that could have been taken six months ago. The prime minister and former prime minister, who are superior to the positions they hold, are unconvincing not only for Romanians, who should see them as inevitable winners, but also for the electorate of their parties. All that is missing is the cancellation of the unification by the Constitutional Court, so that the picture of the missed start is complete.

It is more than questionable to use the alibi of the international context to claim that you are the only one who can bring “stability”. It is also the first slogan word announced by the two parties. Stability is necessary at the institutional level, but this does not mean freezing the project, but simple continuity does not necessarily lead to stability. Stability is also related to trust in leaders.

The unpredictable global context automatically generates a high level of unpredictability within the country as well. It is illusory to think that we are an island, that we will not bring uncertainty and even instability to the path of information warfare. We don’t know how the fighting on the front in Ukraine will develop in the coming months, we don’t know when the US will send the aid that the Biden administration has been announcing for months, we don’t know the ability of European countries to fulfill their promises and, in fact, wake up. we do not know what signal the European electorate will give in June and whether political negotiations will continue at the EU level. Last but not least, we don’t know what show the US will put on in the election campaign, what the result will be and what the consequences will be for us. The list can be continued. Of course, there is nothing new about the future being fraught with uncertainty, but the degree to which almost any of them could have a vital impact on Romania is unprecedented in the recent past.

In this context, hoping that it will eliminate unpleasant surprises is a goal that is all the more difficult for the PSD-PNL to achieve, the more pseudo-leaders it has and the more it insists on the method of closing all the doors through which a surprise can come. There may be surprises through the window, or, why not, maybe those who are now diligently helping to guard all the doors will take advantage of this weakness themselves.

The more the story of PSD-PNL’s imminent dominance is sold, and the worse it is sold, the wider the door opens for fishermen in muddy water. In any case, political history is painfully written, because even if the dominance of the PSD-PNL is indeed confirmed by a series of elections, the legitimacy obtained will be very fragile. The PNL-PSD sell stability because the majority wants stability, but the majority is conflicted and wants, perhaps as much, change.

Who are modern fishermen in muddy water? Out of the stuttering alliance in power over Bucharest emerged Piedone, the alternative mayor of the two sectors, but also a former public enemy who wants revenge by confusing the accounts. But he couldn’t hope for much, but he wouldn’t have a fisherman of a much better caliber behind him in the cloudy waters, Dan Voiculescu, whose name was Varanul. He finishes his dividends from investments in “Hrivko Premier” and is ready to play the card of his influence to project other mayors, ministers, presidents, etc. into the political arena. His media vector is trying to push Piedone to the forefront, but he does not give up even increasing the publicity of the PSD-PNL candidate. From murky water fishing to two-way play is just one step away.

There are other political media investors, visible or not, but certainly more informed than the populace who are served a media mix every day that they cannot understand much of. Confusion is an end in itself for these investors because it makes any kind of social mobilization difficult. But when they take a step in a certain direction, the question is who will follow them. Or, perhaps, the electorate will go in the exact opposite direction from the one indicated in areas in which trust has long since disappeared.

During this time, after ten years in office, President Iohannis wants to forget about his domestic records, having won a personal external victory. But this is rather proof that ignorance knows no bounds and fraud knows no bounds. If by the end of two mandates Traian Basescu was gradually losing power, Klaus Iohannis is likely to see a sudden fall with a shock wave that will spread with great speed. Then many of his structures, with which he seeks to maintain his influence even after losing the presidency, will turn out to be just castles of playing cards. A low-quality, behind-the-scenes game that will not leave behind disappointments, because the current head of state has never really managed to deceive anyone.

Instead, it will leave a lot of illusion, a lot of self-deception, based on the idea that after the previous Johannis, anyone can claim a place in the palace of Cotrocen. This would leave behind a more open, perhaps even bloodier political game. In conclusion, the surprise of the year will be the lack of surprise or surprises. Those who are more willing to speculate on them will win, not those who imagine that they provide a series of seemingly easy, seemingly inevitable victories. Comment on Contributors.ro