While all eyes are on Ukraine, another conflict is brewing in Europe. Three decades after the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia, recent clashes between Serbia and Kosovo have reignited smoldering ethnic conflicts. If Serbia is the cause of the events on the ground, then Russia is fanning the flames, writes the Wall Street Journal, as quoted by Rador Radio Romania.

Vladimir Putin has been honest in expressing his desire to weaken NATO and restore Russia’s historic borders. But with Russian forces defeated in Ukraine, Moscow has a lot to gain from fomenting trouble elsewhere on the continent. A proper regional crisis would give the Kremlin an opportunity to gain influence at the local level through arms supplies and mediation, while diverting attention from Ukraine and giving Russia leverage over Western capitals.

The Western Balkans is an ideal candidate. Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are not in NATO. Just as Moscow seeks to dominate the so-called “Russian world,” Serbia seeks to unite the “Serbian world.” This is the same concept that motivated Serbia to invade Kosovo in 1998 [sic! fiind provincie a Serbiei, Kosovo nu putea fi „invadată” de Belgrad – n.trad.] – the conflict ended only with NATO’s military intervention in March 1999 in order to stop human rights violations committed by Serbs against Albanians in the province.

Although thousands of NATO peacekeepers (KFOR) are still in Kosovo, tensions remain high. Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence from Serbia in 2008 and has been recognized by several Western powers, including the United States. But Serbia still does not recognize its sovereignty. Serbian President Oleksandr Vucic is consolidating his power in the country, and over the past year he has been putting pressure on Kosovo with the help of Russia.

Serbia put its troops on alert in May due to clashes between Serbian rebels [din Kosovo – n.trad.] and KFOR, as a result of which 90 NATO soldiers were wounded.

It was a typical maneuver by the Kremlin, which uses ethnic tensions as a pretext for military maneuvers. In September, Vucic will again act on Putin’s instructions. 30 heavily armed Serbs, who Kosovo says were equipped by Serbia and linked to Vučić, attacked a Kosovo police patrol, killing four policemen. Vucic denied arming the attackers.

Serbia used the incident as a pretext for a massive deployment of troops and heavy weapons on the border with Kosovo in late September. The White House was “very concerned that Serbia was preparing for a military invasion,” a US official later told Time. Such a conflict could easily spread to neighboring North Macedonia, which is a member of NATO. Fear of a possible crisis prompted the US to release classified information about Serbia’s military build-up and attack on Kosovo police.

A few days later, Serbia withdrew its troops from the border, but it is now clear that Belgrade and Moscow are preparing a second campaign of violence and provocation for 2024. Russia conducts influence operations with pro-war messages in Serbia and sends weapons there. And China sends arms to Serbia.

Serbia has pledged to increase military spending this year and continues to host a Russian-controlled so-called humanitarian center near NATO’s main base in Kosovo, which the West says is spying for Russia. Serbia and Russia deny the information. The Serbs seem eager to find a pretext for action, with Belgrade saying in February that banning the Serbian dinar in Kosovo was tantamount to ethnic cleansing.

And this is not even the only powder keg in the region. And Bosnia and Herzegovina teeters on the brink of collapse. Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, another Russian ally, threatened to secede from his semi-autonomous region of Republika Srpska in December. Ethnic violence that killed more than 100,000 people during the 1992-1995 Bosnian war could flare up here in the coming months.

The risk of inter-ethnic violence in the Western Balkans is expected to increase in 2024, according to a February 5 US spy report. In December, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that Russia plans to destabilize the Balkans, which was reiterated by British Foreign Secretary David Cameron in January.

Western countries must prevent the escalation of instability in the Balkans.

NATO should refocus its military and diplomatic resources there and increase its military commitment in Kosovo. A coalition of NATO members willing to act must publicly pledge military assistance should Serbia or Russia commit any aggression in the Balkans.

In the meantime, the US should continue to impose sanctions on those responsible for undermining security in the Western Balkans, and the EU should also participate in the sanctions. Washington and its allies should also continue to use classified information disclosures for diplomatic purposes. And NATO should deploy hybrid warfare teams to improve cyber security to counter Serbian and Russian propaganda campaigns.

As NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary and Putin suffers new losses in Ukraine, Moscow is trying to open a new front in the Balkans. Russia does not need to send its army there. Russia needs Serbia only to incite violence and instability through it, betting that NATO will hesitate to respond, writes the Wall Street Journal, as cited by Rador Radio Romania.