The war unleashed by Russia and the challenge of climate change have returned nuclear energy development strategies to Western discussion. However, experts warn not to forget that the majority of uranium mines and plants for the production of nuclear fuel are located in Russia and China. Thus, we risk becoming much more dependent on Russia in electricity than we are now in the oil and gas sector. The solution is to develop as much of the supply chain as possible at the EU and US level. Romania is also on the new nuclear energy map, planning to build the world’s first small reactors based on American technology.

State representatives and experts on energy and climate change, who gathered late last year at the COP28 conference, concluded that it was time to return to nuclear power as part of a plan to reduce our dependence on Russian gas, as well as obtain clean energy. instead of coal.

The plan is good in theory, but we also have to consider the main risks associated with nuclear power, and we don’t just mean safety. These are high costs and the fact that the vast majority of uranium mining rights and most nuclear fuel plants are located in Russia and China.

Specialists from the Oxford Institute for Energy Research analyzed these aspects in detail in a recently published report. Sara Wahshuri, an energy expert and one of the authors, says the Americans themselves have a long-term agreement with Russia to supply nuclear fuel for most commercial nuclear reactors in the United States.

That’s why “the United States is now moving toward small reactors that can be upgraded to large reactors in the future. The United States hopes that this type of reactor could play an important role in ensuring energy security by placing them, for example, in Romania. If they are located in Romania, it is possible to create some independence in the electricity generation sector, Romania will have a surplus, and from there electricity can be exported to surrounding countries that are heavily dependent on Russia,” she said. – said in the podcast published on the website of the institute.

Although Russia is only the sixth-largest producer of uranium, she says we should be careful about the rights Russian companies have to mine uranium in other countries, such as Kazakhstan, the largest uranium producer.

The same is true of China, which owns most of the uranium mining rights in Namibia, the world’s second largest producer of uranium.

“We see that Russia and China have the vast majority of mining rights in these mines. (…) Russia dominates the market for uranium enrichment and nuclear fuel production, that is, throughout the entire cycle. In comparison, the United States does not own this entire cycle,” Vakhshuri added.

Eastern Europe is most vulnerable to dependence on Russia

Of the total number of recently built reactors, 70% were made in Russia and China, and those not located in these countries, in turn, were made by them.

In 2022, there were 104 nuclear reactors in the European Union, about 25% of the world’s total.

Some countries are quite dependent on this technology, for example France – 70%, Slovakia, Belgium and Hungary – 50%, Slovenia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria – 40%. This shows how important the nuclear sector is for Europe’s energy security.

Most of the reactors are made with Western technology and can be fed from several sources. They were not exposed to the risk of nuclear fuel failure in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

However, a group of countries on the EU’s eastern flank operate reactors equipped with Russian technology, and there are serious concerns about the safety of the nuclear fuel supply chain.

These problems are not new, and the Euroatom agency has repeatedly drawn attention to the risk of dependence on one fuel supplier. With the beginning of the war, the urgency of solving this problem increased dramatically.

The cost of Russian reactors is the lowest

Orford analysts also looked at the costs of producing energy from nuclear sources and showed that it is much cheaper to produce MWh with Russian technology than with American or French technology. The same applies to capital expenditure.

“We can become much more dependent on Russia in the electricity sector than we are now in the oil and gas sector,” Vakhshuri said.

Analysts at the University of Oxford suggest across this landscape that decision-makers in the European Union are proactively concerned about local development of capabilities across the entire supply chain.

This will radically change the nuclear energy sector not only in Europe, but globally as countries continue to reduce their dependence on Russia and China for expertise, technology and resources.

Politico: The problem with American mini-reactors is that they don’t exist yet

In an article published two days ago, the European publication Politico, based in Brussels, also considers this aspect, emphasizing that the first American modular reactors could be located in Romania.

However, the tone is low-key because the small American NuScale reactors do not yet exist, and there is no estimate of the cost of locating them in the municipality of Deutschesti.

This comes after a previous project, which was supposed to be located in the United States, was canceled due to cost overruns.

“Everyone agrees that these first blocks will be very expensive and possibly above the market price,” says Cognet Dauphin, an analyst at S&P Global, while Romania’s Energy Minister Sebastian Burduia believes subsidies will be needed from “billion-dollar” nations.

Otilia Nutsu, an energy specialist at the Expert Forum, also reminds Politico of Romania’s local specificity, with projects that start and then are either very late or never finished.

A week ago, HotNews.ro made a video report about Deutschesti, a commune in Dambovica County, where the first nuclear mini-reactors based on American technology are planned to be built, which you can watch here: