​Tuesday’s GOP primary in New Hampshire, though only the second on the GOP calendar to nominate a presidential candidate in November, has no shortage of tension. While it will give front-runner Donald Trump an opportunity to prove he can be unstoppable in his march to the Republican nomination, it could also give challenger Nikki Haley a chance to show Trump can be vulnerable, Reuters writes.

The battle between Trump and Haley is expected to be closer than last week’s result in Iowa. Trump defeated Haley, who was his ambassador to the United Nations, and his other rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by 30% in the state caucuses.

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But DeSantis dropped out of the race on Sunday, giving Haley the two-person primary contest she’s been longing for.

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Bets for Donald Trump

The former president has been holding rallies in New Hampshire nearly every day in the run-up to the primary, a hectic pace for a candidate who usually prefers to pick his seats. But there is a simple reason why Trump wanted it so much. Trump and his advisers want to convince Haley, her voters and donors, as well as the media covering the campaign, that this race is over and Trump will be the only candidate.

If he defeats Haley by a wide margin, Trump may consider himself a long way from the nomination.

Instead, Trump’s camp realizes that a close result would send the opposite signal — that a significant portion of the Republican electorate is still looking for someone else.

Haley will get a major boost heading into next month’s primary election in her home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor. Money will likely continue to pour in to keep his candidacy alive.

It’s a worst-case scenario for Trump, but he will nonetheless remain the favorite for the nomination against Democratic President Joe Biden in November.

Bets for Nikki Haley

A Haley victory in New Hampshire would be a political earthquake. This would be a reversal of the situation that would erase the aura of inevitability that Trump carried for months and would activate anti-Trump forces in the party, writes News.ro with reference to Reuters. Haley could then turn to South Carolina as a viable alternative to Trump, arguing that she represents the party’s future and he represents the past. The battle will be close and the final outcome uncertain.

A narrow second place finish won’t achieve the same for Haley, but it would still allow her to argue that the anti-Trump vote should rally around her — especially now that DeSantis has dropped out of the race.

Polls have shown that DeSantis supporters are more likely to support Trump than Haley. But DeSantis’ exit gives Haley an opportunity to go after her constituents, who want to turn the page on Trump and install a new generation of leaders. Whether a strong presence in New Hampshire would ultimately help her compete with Trump in South Carolina and beyond remains to be seen, but she would have legitimate reasons to keep fighting.

A landslide victory for Trump would be devastating for Haley, stripping her of any presumption of viability. That would show that Trump’s support is so broad across the party that there would be little hope of derailment, Reuters said, according to News.ro.

Key events of the 2024 US presidential election

• Jan. 15: Iowa Republicans hold an internal nominating election, a process known as a caucus, the first of the 2024 election cycle. Caucuses are private meetings held at the district, precinct, or district level where participants are divided into groups based on a candidate , which they support, determining the number of delegates each candidate receives.

Democrats in Iowa are individually choosing their nominee exclusively through mail-in ballots and will announce the results on Super Tuesday, March 5.

• January 18: ABC News and WMUR-TV cover the Republican primary in Manchester, New Hampshire. The top three candidates from the Iowa caucuses will be invited to run, along with any other candidate who reaches the 10% threshold in the polls.
• January 21: CNN covers the Republican presidential debate in Goffstown, New Hampshire. Qualification will depend on achieving at least 10% of the survey results, as well as other criteria.
• January 23: New Hampshire holds its first national primary, a contest organized by state and local governments in which participants vote for their preferred candidate by secret ballot.

The Democratic National Committee had wanted the state to hold its first election on Feb. 6 after South Carolina, which was slated to be first on the Democratic calendar in 2024. But New Hampshire Democrats said they wanted to keep the tradition of being first, prompting the Biden campaign to announce in October that his name will not be on the ballot in that state.

• January 31: The Federal Election Commission ends 2023. Deadline for candidates to report money raised and spent.
• February 3: Democratic presidential primary in South Carolina.
• February 6: Democratic primary in Nevada.
• February 6: Nikki Haley files to run in the Nevada primary, two days before the state’s GOP convention.
• February 8: Republican caucuses in Nevada.
• February 24: Republican primary in South Carolina.
• February 27: Democrats and Republicans vote in the Michigan primary, which the Democratic-controlled state won with Republican opposition. Instead, Republicans will choose a majority of their delegates at the caucuses in March.
• March 2: Michigan Republicans elect a majority of delegates at the caucus.
• March 5: Known as Super Tuesday, this is the most important day of the primary and often helps narrow the field of candidates. Both parties hold elections in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. Utah Democrats will also vote in the primary election, while Republicans are holding statewide caucuses. Alaska Republicans vote in the primary election.
• March 12: Primary elections are held in the states of Georgia, Mississippi and Washington. Republicans are holding caucuses in Hawaii.
• March 19: Primary elections are held in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio.
• June 4: The last states scheduled to hold their presidential primaries are scheduled for this day. Some states have not yet set dates for their primaries or caucuses.
• July 15-18: The Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where the party officially chooses its nominee.
• August 19-22: Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where the party officially chooses its candidate.
• September 16: The Commission on Presidential Debates sets a date for the first presidential debate. It will be held at Texas State University in San Marcos, Texas.
• September 25: The date is set for the only vice presidential debate to be held at Lafayette College in Easton, Pennsylvania.
• October 1: The date is set for the second presidential debate to be held at Virginia State University in Petersburg, Virginia.
• October 9: The date has been set for the third and final presidential debate to be held at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City, Utah.
• November 5: Election Day
• It can take several days to know the results of an election, especially if it’s close and if voting by mail is a big factor.

Inauguration of the newly elected president only in January 2025

• January 6: The vice president presides over the counting of electoral college votes during a joint session of Congress, announces the results, and announces who has been elected.

Ahead of the vote count on January 6, 2021, former President Trump criticized his Vice President, Mike Pence, for refusing to block Congress from confirming Biden’s victory. Protesters stormed the US Capitol that day, some chanting “hang Mike Pence,” in an attempt to stop the count. Later, both houses of Congress resumed their activities and certified Biden’s victory.

Congress has since passed the Voter Counting Reform Act of 2022, which requires the approval of a fifth of the House and Senate to hear appeals of state results — a much higher floor than existed before, when any lawmaker from each chamber could call for an appeal.

• January 20: Inauguration of the winner of the election and their vice president. During this ceremony, the winner is officially sworn in and takes office.