Taiwan heads to the polls on Saturday to elect a new president and new parliament, under the perceived shadow of an increasingly assertive China, which has called the vote a choice between “peace and war,” Reuters and news.ro reported.

But regardless of who wins the election, Beijing’s military and economic pressure on Taiwan could continue and even intensify, Taiwanese security officials say.

China considers Taiwan its territory, despite loud objections from the government in Taipei, and has never given up on the idea of ​​using force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.

In addition to its territorial importance to Beijing, Taiwan is also the world’s center for semiconductor manufacturing and home to the world’s largest chip maker, TSMC.

ELECTIONS WITH CHINA’S BREATH ON ITS NECK

At stake in the election will be the future of Taiwan’s strained ties with its giant neighbor, with both major parties backing Taiwan’s sovereignty but offering differing views on the island’s relationship with China.

Vice President Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), urged the public not to succumb to China’s threats, offering talks with China and pledging not to disturb the status quo.

“Taiwan is at the forefront of the confrontation between democracy and totalitarianism,” Lai said at a campaign rally on Tuesday.

FAKE NEWS AND MILITARY PRESSURE

The PPP says Beijing is trying to interfere in the vote by spreading fake news and applying military and economic pressure. China has called the PPP allegations “dirty tricks” and a vote-getting maneuver by “exaggerating” the threat.

China has conducted two rounds of major military exercises near Taiwan in the past year and a half, including in August 2022, firing missiles into waters off the island as Beijing asserts its sovereignty claims over the democratic island.

Taiwan’s largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), has called the PPP separatist and vowed to strongly oppose Taiwan’s independence, while saying it would seek dialogue with China and continue to strengthen the island’s defenses.

“Hou Yu will oppose Taiwan independence, allow cross-strait peace, restore dialogue and exchanges, strengthen national defense and allow everyone to live peacefully in Taiwan,” KMT presidential candidate Hu said Monday.

DIFFERENT VISIONS OF FUTURE RELATIONS WITH CHINA

In 1949, the defeated government of the Republic of China took refuge in Taiwan after losing a civil war against Mao Zedong’s Communists, who founded the People’s Republic of China. The Republic of China remains the official name of Taiwan.

While both major parties say Taiwan is already a sovereign country, they have different views on ties with China.

The KMT claims that both Taipei and Beijing belong to the same China, but anyone can interpret what that means under the so-called “1992 Consensus,” a tacit understanding reached between the KMT and Chinese governments at the time.

The DPP rejects Beijing’s claims to sovereignty, saying Taiwan’s future should be decided by its people.

If the PPP wins the presidential election, it will be the first time that the same party will remain in power for a third consecutive term since direct presidential voting began in 1996. China, where President Xi Jinping is carrying out a new anti-corruption purge of the military and faces ongoing economic problems, will have a critical response to the election results.

CAMPAIGN “ON SEVERAL FRONTS”

Taiwanese officials have repeatedly warned voters that Beijing is trying to influence the election with a “multi-front” campaign, from covert temple influence operations and trade sanctions to sponsoring cheap trips to China for local politicians and pressure on an influential company. group.

A Taiwanese security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation, said China may conduct additional exercises between the election and May 20, when the new president takes office. “But we certainly have to consider China’s own problems, including its tolerance for international criticism,” the official said.

Since late December, Xi has twice stressed the importance of “reunification” with Taiwan in public comments, though he has made no mention of elections or the use of force.

A second Taiwanese security official said that regardless of who is elected, Beijing could increase pressure on the new leader by May 20, possibly economically, by imposing anti-dumping duties on Taiwanese imports after Taiwan last year accused establishment of unfair trade barriers.

Taiwan’s security forces believe China is likely to continue to reduce the number of countries that have formal diplomatic relations with Taipei (currently only 13) and increase economic coercion, including through trade investigations, according to a domestic security assessment of possible scenarios. vote.

BET ON LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

There is also a third presidential candidate – former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je from the small Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), founded in 2019.

The party currently holds just five of the 113 seats in the legislature, but Ko’s focus on grassroots issues such as high housing costs has won him passionate support among many young Taiwanese who have turned out in large numbers for his campaign rallies.

Parliamentary elections are equally important, and both the PPP and the Kuomintang during the campaign emphasized the need to obtain a majority. For the past four years, the DPP has had more than 50% of MPs, meaning it could easily pass laws.

According to the Constitution, President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP cannot run for re-election after serving two four-year terms.