The upcoming presidential election in the United States represents the greatest political risk for the future of the planet because, regardless of the outcome, American democratic institutions will be undermined, Eurasia Group said on Monday, according to AFP.

In its annual report, the political risk consultancy predicts the Nov. 5 election will “test American democracy to a degree the nation has not experienced in 150 years,” referring to the US Civil War.

“The United States is already the most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy in the world. The 2024 election will exacerbate this problem, regardless of who wins,” the study said.

“The only certainty is that America’s social fabric, political institutions, and international reputation will continue to suffer,” the research firm added.

If Republican primary front-runner Donald Trump loses again to President Joe Biden, he is likely to denounce massive fraud and launch large-scale campaigns of intimidation against public officials and those responsible for the election process, according to a report.

However, if Joe Biden wins, the United States could also face an “unprecedented political crisis” if Trump is jailed in one of the many cases in which he is being prosecuted, according to the Eurasia Group. However, large-scale violence remains unlikely, according to the report.

Joe Biden is presenting the campaign as a fight to save democracy from another Trump presidency, whose supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, in the hope of preventing the confirmation of Biden’s victory.

It is expected that in the event of defeat, Joe Biden will unquestioningly accept the results of the election. But many Democrats will challenge the real estate mogul’s legitimacy, and some will refuse to endorse his victory, citing a constitutional ban on anyone who was “involved in the rebellion” from serving as president, Eurasia Group reported.

The research firm also predicts that a returning Donald Trump will use the state as a “weapon” to hunt down opponents and suppress dissent.

The Eurasian group ranks violence in the Middle East as the second biggest global risk, with war between Israel and Hamas “likely to be only the first phase of an escalating conflict in 2024”.

The third major risk concerns Ukraine, as the study predicts that the country will be de facto divided in 2024 as Kyiv tries to reclaim territories seized from Russia.

In any case, Ukraine will suffer another blow if Donald Trump wins, as he has made no secret of his opposition to billions in aid to Kyiv. (Joaquin Corbalan | Dreamstime.com)