Ukraine’s mobile air defenses have enough ammunition to deal with only “a few” new large-scale Russian attacks and can only be replenished with help from the West, a Ukrainian general has warned. experts consulted by AFP said.

Although the Ukrainian military currently claims to be able to shoot down most of the missiles and drones launched by Russia, these attacks have increased in recent days and continue to cause heavy casualties, with around fifty killed in Friday’s attack, five in Tuesday’s attack and hundreds of people wounded civilians.

Ammunition is left in Ukraine only for a few massive airstrikes

“In the current situation, from the point of view of mobile air defense systems, there is enough ammunition (…) to withstand the next major attacks,” stressed General Serhii Nayev, commander of the United Forces of Ukraine, in an interview with AFP during the meeting . meetings on Wednesday with other military personnel near Kyiv.

“But in the medium and long term, we obviously need the help of Western countries to restore the stockpile of missiles,” added the general who commands these units tasked with protecting the skies above the capital.

Therefore, his priority is to “get more ammunition” before the Russian army, which “really wants to exhaust the air defense system.”

According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, since December 29, 2023, Russia has sent almost 300 missiles and more than 200 Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicles against Ukraine.

“No other anti-aircraft gun in the world has such results”

On the other hand, General Nayev’s units are equipped with mobile systems, rather than more sophisticated equipment such as the American Patriot systems, which are capable of shooting down Russian Kinjal hypersonic missiles.

“Of course we would like more missiles for the Patriot and more of the systems themselves,” said this senior Ukrainian officer.

The latest two waves of massive Russian strikes have become an opportunity for Ukrainian officials to call on the West to increase aid after nearly two years of Russian invasion.

General Nayev presented medals to the soldiers who defended the skies, congratulating them on their “efficiency of about 90 percent” during the Russian airstrike on Tuesday.

“No other air defense system in the world is capable of achieving such results, especially when it comes to the fight against Russia,” he said.

Will Ukraine run out of interceptors before Russia runs out of missiles?

According to experts, the recent massive strikes by Russia on large Ukrainian cities are aimed at exhausting the population and air defense of Ukraine.

One of the Kremlin’s main goals, explains Mick Ryan, a research fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), is to “check” Ukraine’s air defenses, which have been modernized by the American Patriot system and its Franco-Italian equivalent. , SAMP/T MAMBA.

Moscow is trying to race against time in the hope that “Ukraine will run out of interceptors before Russia runs out of missiles and drones,” this retired Australian general wrote on X.

Russia has shifted to a military economy as the West struggles to supply the necessary number of surface-to-air anti-aircraft missiles, much more complex and expensive to manufacture than some drones made partly from civilian equipment.

The main target of the Russian strikes is the “defense industry”, which Kyiv is trying to strengthen in the face of falling arms supplies from the West, according to the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain.

The Russians “are now trying to attack the military-industrial complex, companies, not the energy infrastructure (unlike last winter, no), but the production of weapons,” explained Mykola Beleskov, a military analyst at the Ukrainian Institute of Strategic Studies. for AFP.

“We started producing more weapons than before,” Serhii Zgurets, director of the Ukrainian research center Defense Express, told AFP, referring to ammunition, drones, armored vehicles and radars.

Moscow’s troops practice various combinations of airstrikes

To achieve these goals, “the sequence and combination of Russian missiles have changed, they have become more complex,” Stephane Audran, a French consultant on international risks, told AFP.

The head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine described in Telegram the range of projectiles used by the Russians during the attack on January 1-2: drones, modern cruise missiles, old missiles and ballistic missiles.

Ukraine also claims to have shot down 10 Kinjal hypersonic missiles in the attack, despite the Kremlin saying they were “invincible”.

The purpose of Russian strikes is also, as it has been since the beginning of the war in February 2022, to undermine the morale of the population.

What message does Putin want to convey to Ukraine?

“Russian ‘victories’ on the ground are local and come at an inordinately high human cost, so (Vladimir) Putin is again trying to use another lever of pressure,” said Tetiana Kastueva-Jean of the French Institute of International Relations.

“I will not give up, I am ready for anything, you will suffer endlessly and die if you do not obey my conditions,” is Putin’s message, she explained in an interview with AFP.

The Russian president also turns to the West, wanting to demonstrate, according to Tetyana Kastuyeva-Zhan, that “the support given to Ukraine only continues the suffering of the population and turns Ukraine into a financial abyss, where expensive infrastructure that needs to be restored can be beaten again and again.

The attacks are also revenge for the strikes in Belgorod

Tetyana Stanova, the founder of the Russian political analysis center “R.Politik”, believes that these attacks have acquired a repressive character.

After the Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod, Russia, which killed 25 people on December 30, Vladimir Putin sent the following message: “Ukraine cannot attack us without consequences,” she says.

Against the background of this Russian campaign, the head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Dmytro Kuleba, called for the West to speed up the supply of “additional air defense systems, combat drones” and “missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers.”

This opinion was echoed by Poland, which called on Wednesday to equip Ukraine with long-range missiles to counter Russian attacks.

Kyiv is also waiting for F-16 fighter jets promised by several European countries, which can contribute to the air-to-air missile defense system.