President Vladimir V. Putin’s confidence seems to know no bounds. Bolstered by Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive and faltering Western support, Putin says Russia’s war aims remain unchanged. During a discussion with his generals on Tuesday, Putin boasted that Ukraine is so backed into a corner that an invasion of Russian troops is doing “what we want,” the New Yotk Times reported, as cited by Rador Radio Romania.

“We’re not going to give up what’s ours,” he declared, before adding dismissively: “If they want to negotiate, then negotiate.”

But in his recent comments behind the scenes, Putin sent a different message. He is ready to make a deal.

Since at least September, Putin has signaled through proxies that he is willing to reach a ceasefire to end fighting on the current front, a far cry from his desire to dominate Ukraine, according to two former senior Russian officials close to him. as well as American and foreign officials who received such a message from Putin’s emissaries.

In fact, Putin also mentioned a cease-fire agreement a year ago, in the fall of 2022, according to a number of U.S. officials. This inconspicuous availability, which was not previously mentioned, appeared after Ukraine pushed back the Russian army from the northeast of the country. According to the same officials, Putin has made it clear that he is satisfied with the territory captured by Russia and is ready to conclude a truce.

Putin’s repeated interest in a possible truce demonstrates how opportunistic and improvised his approach to the war has been behind the scenes. Dozens of interviews with Russians who have known him for a long time and with foreign officials who have been able to observe the Kremlin’s internal maneuvers show that the leader is eager to reduce risks and maintain maneuvers in a war that is lasting longer than he expected. Despite his fiery rhetoric in public, Putin privately expressed his desire to declare victory and move on to other matters.

There is no evidence that Ukrainian leaders who intend to return their territories will accept such an agreement. A number of US officials say this is a well-known attempt by the Kremlin to mislead and does not reflect a genuine desire for compromise on Putin’s part. Former Russian officials also say that Putin may well change his mind if Russian forces begin to rebuild.

Over the past 16 months, Putin has suffered several humiliations — embarrassing retreats, the rebellion of a once-friendly general — before reaching his current calm confidence. In all, he launched a war that killed or maimed thousands of people, displaying the contradictions that became the “trademark” of his regime.

While he obsesses over Russia’s actions on the battlefield and what he sees as a historic mission to retake what he considers Russia’s “legitimate territories,” he has longed for most Russians to continue their normal lives. Although he is preparing Russia for a multi-year war, he is quietly trying to show that he is ready to end it.

He really wants to stop at the current positions, a number of former high-ranking Russian officials told The New York Times, speaking of the Kremlin’s understated message. A high-ranking official added: “He doesn’t want to back down even a meter.”

The existence of a truce

Since September, Western officials have picked up new signals that Putin may be interested in a truce.

The signals come through multiple channels, including through foreign governments that maintain relations with both the United States and Russia. A number of unofficial Russian emissaries have spoken with interlocutors about “outlines” of a possible deal that Putin would accept, according to several U.S. officials and others.

“Neither Putin nor the Russian military wants to further weaken their capabilities,” said a foreign official who met with a number of senior Russian officials this fall.

And Putin has made some vague public statements that he is open to negotiations, statements that Western commentators have generally played down.

A number of analysts say Putin has something to gain from the protracted war and that he wants to delay any talks until former President Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner for the 2024 presidential election, is back in the White House. Former Russian officials believe that Putin would like to reach a deal sooner, given the uncertainty inherent in war.

They argue that Putin’s propaganda can easily turn the current situation into a victory, praising the land corridor to Crimea, an army that has withstood Ukraine’s Western-backed counteroffensive, and Russia’s alleged annexation of four Ukrainian regions while glossing over the fact that Russia is not doing so. control them at all.

According to some, the ideal time would be before the Russian presidential elections scheduled for March. Putin is confident of securing another six-year term, but he wants the election to demonstrate popular support.

Publicly, Putin has maintained his aggressive stance, saying he stands up to the West, which seeks to destroy Russia’s 1,000-year-old civilization.

But US officials see a change in Putin’s position, stressing that he is no longer calling for the resignation of Zelenskyi’s government. They say the truce proposed by Putin would preserve a sovereign Ukraine with its capital in Kyiv, but allow Russia to control the 20 percent of Ukrainian territory it has already annexed. They also say that while Putin has shown he is open to such a deal, he is waiting for a slightly more specific offer.

Among the many demands that will not be abandoned is Putin’s determination to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. But a former Russian official believes that differences on this issue will not push Putin away from the deal, given that the alliance is not going to accept Ukraine anytime soon.

Still, a number of senior U.S. officials say they don’t believe any prominent Ukrainian politician could agree to a deal that leaves Russia with so much Ukrainian territory.

Another possible deadlock could arise from Putin’s attempts to put the United States at the center of any negotiations.

The governments of the United States and Russia maintain channels of communication on issues such as prisoner exchanges. But William J. Burns, director of the CIA, and Sergei Naryshkin, director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, last met about a year ago in Turkey, officials said. And, according to American officials, the United States is not conducting and will not conduct negotiations on behalf of Ukraine. U.S. officials say that regardless of Putin’s availability, Ukraine must demonstrate its strength and the United States must demonstrate its determination to support Ukraine to reinforce Trump’s belief that time is on his side and that he can make concessions in any negotiations. .

Many Westerners are skeptical of the ceasefire because they believe Putin could rearm for a future attack. In an interview, Latvian President Edgars Rinkevičs said that Putin is determined to continue the war because he dreams of “restoring the empire.”

“They never kept their agreements,” Rinkevichs said of the Russians, “and they broke them when they saw fit.”