The U.S. intelligence community now believes that Iran and its proxies are planning their response to Israel’s military intervention in Gaza to avoid direct conflict with Israel or the U.S. while inflicting some damage on their adversaries, the News reported. ro with a link to CNN.

On the other hand, the United States knows that Iran does not maintain perfect control over its proxy umbrella — especially Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the largest and best-armed of the various groups it supports. Hezbollah is allied with Hamas, the Palestinian movement that attacked Israel on October 7, and has long positioned itself as fighting against Israel.

American officials are deeply concerned that the group’s internal politics could escalate simmering tensions with Hezbollah.

In addition, according to sources connected to US intelligence services in the region, the US does not always have a good view of communications between Iran and its various proxies.

“The problem is that not all attackers have the same respect for Tehran — lumping them together is a mistake,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence analyst specializing in regional affairs. “The question is, if it looks like Hamas is really in trouble, will Hezbollah and Iran agree to a full-scale attack by Hezbollah to save Hamas, or won’t they — and I don’t think we we still know this,” he says. expert.

Tehran knows that if Hezbollah escalates its conflict with Israel or the United States, it is likely to trigger direct counterattacks against Iran that could be devastating for it, said a U.S. official who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity.

Low-level attacks by various proxy groups against Israel and the US since October 7 have prompted the US to deploy significant military assets, forced Israel to disperse its forces and munitions, and allowed Iran to be perceived as “doing something.” “About the killing of Palestinians in Gaza,” said this man, “avoiding direct conflict.”

US officials believe that this is a coordinated strategy. According to local media reports, the Iranian general tasked with running Iran’s proxy network has been in and out of Beirut since October 7, where he met with members of Hezbollah, Hamas and other Iran-backed groups. They all consider themselves part of the “Axis of Resistance” against Israel.

But that strategy could lead to an escalation of the conflict, even if neither side wants it to, several US officials have warned. Senior officials in the Biden administration have repeatedly publicly warned Iran and its proxies not to escalate the conflict. In the days after the attack, President Biden said his message to Iran and Hezbollah was: “Don’t (do it). no no no”. (News.ro)